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A structural estimation of the return to infrastructure investment in China

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  • Wu, Guiying Laura
  • Feng, Qu
  • Wang, Zhifeng

Abstract

The productivity effect of infrastructure investment is controversial in the traditional literature using aggregate production function estimation due to reverse causality. This paper develops a new approach, using a structural model of firm-level production function, and matching Chinese firm-level production data with province-level infrastructure data. The estimated rates of return are about 6 percent averaged from 1999 to 2007. The returns triple if national-level spillover effects are taken into account. Controlling for the demand effect of public expenditure leads to smaller but still positive returns. The effect of infrastructure investment on firm-level productivity is heterogenous. With an increase in infrastructure investment, lower productivity firms are more likely to exit and higher productivity firms gain more market share.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Guiying Laura & Feng, Qu & Wang, Zhifeng, 2021. "A structural estimation of the return to infrastructure investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:152:y:2021:i:c:s0304387821000511
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102672
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Infrastructure investment; Productivity effect; Demand effect; Resource reallocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • R53 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Public Facility Location Analysis; Public Investment and Capital Stock
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

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