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Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities

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  • Zhou, De
  • Yu, Xiaohua
  • Abler, David
  • Chen, Danhong

Abstract

There are many projections for China's food demand, and the projection results differ significantly from each other. Different values for income elasticities could be a major reason. This study projects meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of the income elasticity estimates using a collection of 143 and 240 income elasticity estimates for cereals and meat products, respectively, from 36 primary studies. We find that income elasticities for most cereals (general cereals, rice, and coarse grains) and all meat products (general meat, pork, poultry, beef & mutton) tend to decline as per capita income increases, except for wheat, which increases. Taking this into account, differences between consumption projections based on time-varying income elasticities and values based on constant elasticities are substantial in quantities and increase over time.

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  • Zhou, De & Yu, Xiaohua & Abler, David & Chen, Danhong, 2020. "Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:59:y:2020:i:c:s1043951x17301888
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2017.12.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Meade, Birgit & Muhammad , Andrew, 2017. "The Influence of Income and Prices on Global Dietary Patterns by Country, Age, and Gender," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 10, November.
    3. Liu, Chang & Yi, Fujin & Xu, Zhigang & Tian, Xu, 2021. "Do living arrangements matter?—Evidence from eating behaviors of the elderly in rural China," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    4. Xie, Chaoping & Marchant, Mary A., 2015. "Supplying China’s Growing Appetite for Poultry," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 18(A), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Liu, Yunqiang & Liu, Sha & Ye, Deping & Tang, Hong & Wang, Fang, 2022. "Dynamic impact of negative public sentiment on agricultural product prices during COVID-19," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Projections; Food demand; Income elasticity; China; Meta-analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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