Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ
AbstractThis article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self- sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infra- structure constraints on grain imports.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
Volume (Year): 41 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: AARES Central Office Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, Canberra ACT 0200
Phone: 0409 032 338
Web page: http://www.aares.info
More information through EDIRC
Food Security and Poverty;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1996.
"Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 1997. "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), March.
- Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Chaudhary, Sudhir & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kovarik, Karen & Hart, Chad E. & Fang, Cheng & Kaus, Phillip J. & Naik, Manta & , 1999. "FAPRI 1999 World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32050, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
- Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997.
"The World Food Outlook,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589840, December.
- Johnson, D. Gale, 1994. "Does China have a grain problem?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14.
- Khan, Shahbaz & Hanjra, Munir A. & Mu, Jianxin, 2009. "Water management and crop production for food security in China: A review," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 349-360, March.
- Xiaobo Zhang & Timothy Mount & Richard Boisvert, 2004.
"Industrialization, urbanization and land use in China,"
Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 207-224.
- Zhang, Xiaobo & Mount, Tim D. & Boisvert, Richard N., 2000. "Industrialization, urbanization, and land use in China:," EPTD discussion papers 58, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.
- Zhu, Jing & Zhu, J., 2003. "Public Investment And China'S Grain Production Competitiveness Under Wto," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25825, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Chen, Kai & Brown, Colin, 2001. "Addressing shortcomings in the Household Responsibility System: Empirical analysis of the Two-Farmland System in Shandong Province," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 280-292.
- Delgado, Christopher L. & Courbois, Claude & Rosegrant, Mark W., 1998. "Global food demand and the contribution of livestock as we enter the new millennium," MTID discussion papers 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Curtis, Kynda R. & McCluskey, Jill J. & Wahl, Thomas I., 2007. "Consumer preferences for western-style convenience foods in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-14.
- Chen, Xuqi & Gao, Zhifeng & House, Lisa, 2013. "Opportunities for Western Food Products in China: The Case of Orange Juice Demand," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150771, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Ryan, James G., 2003. "Evaluating the impact of agricultural projection modeling using the "IMPACT” framework," Impact assessments 17, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Ma, Hengyun & Rae, Allan N. & Huang, Jikun, 2004. "Livestock Productivity In China: Data Revision And Total Factor Productivity Decomposition," China Agriculture Project Working Papers 23691, Massey University, Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies.
- Felloni, Fabrizio & Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I. & Wandschneider, Philip R., 2000. "Self-Sufficiency And Productivity In Chinese Agriculture: Implications For China'S Wto Accession," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21747, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.