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Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model

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  • Ana Aizcorbe
  • Samuel Kortum

Abstract

In this paper we develop a vintage model to gain a better understanding of the semiconductor industry and its role in recent U.S. productivity gains. Unlike previous work, in our model the observed price declines of individual chips are driven by the introduction of better vintages rather than by learning economies. Dominated chips, nonetheless, continue to be produced, for a time, due to sunk investments in chip-specific production equipment. The model lends partial support to Jorgenson's hypothesis that an exogenous increase in Moore's Law could have generated the more rapid price declines, and faster productivity growth, seen after 1995. Copyright The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics", 2005 .

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 107 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 603-630

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:107:y:2005:i:4:p:603-630

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Web page: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9442

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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
  2. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2002. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Irwin, Douglas A & Klenow, Peter J, 1994. "Learning-by-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1200-1227, December.
  4. Nile W. Hatch & David C. Mowery, 1998. "Process Innovation and Learning by Doing in Semiconductor Manufacturing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(11-Part-1), pages 1461-1477, November.
  5. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
  6. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U. S. Economy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1911, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Projecting productivity growth: lessons from the U.S. growth resurgence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 1-13.
  8. Ralph Siebert, 2002. "Learning by Doing and Multiproduction Effects over the Life Cycle: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry," CIG Working Papers FS IV 02-23, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  9. Moene, Karl Ove & Wallerstein, Michael, 1997. "Pay Inequality," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 403-30, July.
  10. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1989. "Entry, Exit, and Diffusion with Learning by Doing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 690-99, September.
  11. Ana Aizcorbe, 2002. "Why are semiconductor prices falling so fast? Industry estimates and implications for productivity measurement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
  1. Boyan Jovanovic & Chung-Yi Tse, 2006. "Creative Destruction in Industries," NBER Working Papers 12520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Adam Copeland & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2013. "Price setting in an innovative market," Working Paper Series 2013-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Adam Copeland & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2010. "The impact of competition on technology adoption: an apples-to-PCs analysis," Staff Reports 462, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Siebert, Ralph Bernd, 2010. "Learning-by-Doing and Cannibalization Effects at Multi-Vintage Firms: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry," MPRA Paper 24008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Ana Aizcorbe & Stephen D Oliner & Daniel E Sichel, 2008. "Shifting Trends in Semiconductor Prices and the Pace of Technological Progress," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(3), pages 23-39, July.
  6. Dennis Fixler, 2009. "Accounting for R&D in the National Accounts," BEA Papers 0094, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  7. Raphael Anton Auer & Philip Ulrich Sauré, 2011. "Spatial Competition in Quality, Demand-Induced Innovation, and Schumpeterian Growth," Working Papers 2011-10, Swiss National Bank.
  8. Boyan Jovanovic & Chung-Yi Tse, 2010. "Entry and Exit Echoes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 514-536, July.
  9. Ana Aizcorbe, 2005. "Price Deflators for High Technology Goods and the New Buyer Problem," Industrial Organization 0502009, EconWPA.

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