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Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model

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Author Info
Ana Aizcorbe
Samuel Kortum

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Abstract

In this paper we develop a vintage model to gain a better understanding of the semiconductor industry and its role in recent U.S. productivity gains. Unlike previous work, in our model the observed price declines of individual chips are driven by the introduction of better vintages rather than by learning economies. Dominated chips, nonetheless, continue to be produced, for a time, due to sunk investments in chip-specific production equipment. The model lends partial support to Jorgenson's hypothesis that an exogenous increase in Moore's Law could have generated the more rapid price declines, and faster productivity growth, seen after 1995. Copyright The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics", 2005 .

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2005.00429.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 107 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 603-630
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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:107:y:2005:i:4:p:603-630

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  1. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1989. "Entry, Exit, and Diffusion with Learning by Doing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 690-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Siebert, Ralph, 2003. "Learning by Doing and Multiproduction Effects Over the Life Cycle: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 3734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2002. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 15-44. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ana Aizcorbe, 2002. "Why are semiconductor prices falling so fast? Industry estimates and implications for productivity measurement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Moene, Karl Ove & Wallerstein, Michael, 1997. "Pay Inequality," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 403-30, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Irwin, Douglas A & Klenow, Peter J, 1994. "Learning-by-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1200-1227, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U. S. Economy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1911, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ho, Mun & Jorgenson, Dale & Stiroh, Kevin, 2002. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence," Discussion Papers dp-02-42, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Boyan Jovanovic & Chung-Yi Tse, 2006. "Creative Destruction in Industries," NBER Working Papers 12520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ana Aizcorbe, 2005. "Price Deflators for High Technology Goods and the New Buyer Problem," Industrial Organization 0502009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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