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Shifting Trends in Semiconductor Prices and the Pace of Technological Progress

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  • Ana Aizcorbe

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, DC, 20230, USA.)

  • Stephen D Oliner

    ()
    (Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC, 20551, USA.)

  • Daniel E Sichel

    ()
    (Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC, 20551, USA.)

Abstract

This paper examines three questions motivated by previous research on semiconductors and productivity growth: Why did semiconductor prices fall so rapidly in the second half of the 1990s? Why has the rate of price decline slowed since 2001? And to what extent are these price swings associated with changes in the rate of advance in semiconductor technology? We show that the price swings are statistically significant and that they reflect changes in both price-cost markups and cost trends. Further analysis indicates that the shift to faster cost declines in the mid-1990s likely corresponded to a speed-up in the pace of advance in semiconductor technology. However, the slower cost declines since 2001 appear not to have been mirrored by a deceleration in technology. Consequently, researchers should be cautious about associating price or cost movements for semiconductors with changes in the pace of underlying technology even over moderately long periods.Business Economics (2008) 43, 23–39; doi:10.2145/20080303

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Business Economics.

Volume (Year): 43 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 23-39

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Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:43:y:2008:i:3:p:23-39

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References

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  1. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  2. Ana Aizcorbe & Samuel Kortum, 2005. "Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(4), pages 603-630, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the information technology revolution over?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "Explaining a Productive Decade," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 81-152.
  3. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "A retrospective look at the U.S. productivity growth resurgence," Staff Reports 277, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Hao Tan & John A. Mathews, 2007. "Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries," DRUID Working Papers 07-07, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
  5. Pillai, Unni, 2011. "A model of technological progress in the microprocessor industry," MPRA Paper 31881, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Gonzalo Castex & Evgenia Dechter, 2013. "The Changing Roles of Education and Ability in Wage Determination," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 704, Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Antipa, P. & Cette, G. & Frey, L. & Lecat, R. & Vigna, O., 2008. "Recent trends in productivity: structural acceleration in the euro area and deceleration in the United States?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 11, pages 33-50, Spring.
  8. Susan Houseman, 2006. "Outsourcing, Offshoring, and Productivity Measurement in Manufacturing," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 06-130, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

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