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ICT Diffusion and Potential Output Growth

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  • Cette, G.
  • Mairesse, J.
  • Kocoglu, Y.

Abstract

The sustained increase in productivity gains from the spread of ICTs may increase potential output growth in the medium to long term via capital deepening effects and total factor productivity (TFP) gains, and in the short to medium term via the lagged adjustment of wages to productivity gains. The orders of magnitude resulting from the assessment data presented indicate that the medium to long-term effect could be significant. However, there does not appear to be any empirical evidence to support the existence of the temporary short to medium-term effect.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 112.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:112

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Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Keywords: Growth ; potential output growth; ICT ; investment ; new economy;

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References

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  1. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2002. "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 15-44.
  2. Litan, Robert & Rivlin, Alice, 2001. "Projecting the economic impact of the Internet," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 2, pages 35-41.
  3. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gust, Christopher & Marquez, Jaime, 2004. "International comparisons of productivity growth: the role of information technology and regulatory practices," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 33-58, February.
  5. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: is information technology the story?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Nicholas Oulton, 2001. "ICT and productivity growth in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 140, Bank of England.
  7. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2001. "What drives productivity growth?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 37-59.
  8. Dirk Pilat & Frank C. Lee, 2001. "Productivity Growth in ICT-producing and ICT-using Industries: A Source of Growth Differentials in the OECD?," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2001/4, OECD Publishing.
  9. Jacques Mairesse & Gilbert Cette & Yussuf Kocoglu, 2000. "La mesure de l'investissement en technologies de l'information et de la communication : quelques considérations méthodologiques," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 339(1), pages 73-91.
  10. Cette, Gilbert & Mairesse, Jacques & Kocoglu, Yusuf, 2005. "ICT diffusion and potential output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 231-234, May.
  11. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
  12. Laurence Ball & Robert Tchaidze, 2002. "The Fed and the New Economy," NBER Working Papers 8785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ho, Mun & Jorgenson, Dale & Stiroh, Kevin, 2002. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence," Discussion Papers dp-02-42, Resources For the Future.
  14. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  15. Christopher Gust & Jaime Marquez, 2000. "Productivity developments abroad," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 665-681.
  16. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
  17. Ark, Bart van, 2002. "ICT investments and growth accounts for the European Union," GGDC Research Memorandum 200256, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
  18. Paul Schreyer, 2000. "The Contribution of Information and Communication Technology to Output Growth: A Study of the G7 Countries," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2000/2, OECD Publishing.
  19. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2007. "Information Technology and the G7 Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Honor of Zvi Griliches, pages 325-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Crafts, Nicholas, 2002. "The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 3142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2004. "Challenges of the “New Economy” for Monetary Policy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 27-36, Spring.
  2. Cahn, Christophe & Saint-Guilhem, Arthur, 2007. "Potential output growth in several industrialised countries: a comparison," Working Paper Series 0828, European Central Bank.
  3. Patrick Bongo, 2005. "The Impact of ICT on Economic Growth," Development and Comp Systems 0501008, EconWPA.
  4. Francesco Venturini, 2009. "The long-run impact of ICT," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 497-515, December.
  5. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and Long Run Prospects for UK Growth in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis," CEP Occasional Papers 37, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Nicholas Oulton, 2010. "Long term implications of the ICT revolution: applying the lessons of growth theory and growth accounting," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 49303, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Cette, G. & Mairesse, J. & Kocoglu, Y., 2004. "ICT Diffusion and Potential Output Growth," Working papers 112, Banque de France.
  8. Baghli, M. & Cahn, C. & Villetelle, J-P., 2006. "Estimating Potential Output with a Production Function for France, Germany and Italy," Working papers 146, Banque de France.
  9. Choi, Changkyu, 2010. "The effect of the Internet on service trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 102-104, November.

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