Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Creative Destruction in Industries

Contents:

Author Info

  • Boyan Jovanovic
  • Chung-Yi Tse

Abstract

Most industries go through a "shakeout" phase during which the number of producers in the industry declines. Industry output generally continues to rise, however, which implies a reallocation of capacity from exiting firms to incumbents and new entrants. Thus shakeouts seem to be classic creative destruction episodes. Shakeouts of firms tend to occur sooner in industries where technological progress is rapid. Existing models do not explain this. Yet the relation emerges naturally in a vintage-capital model in which shakeouts of firms accompany the replacement of capital, and in which a shakeout is the first replacement echo of the capital created when the industry is born. We fit the model to the Gort-Klepper data and to Agarwal's update of those data.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12520.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12520.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12520

Note: PR EFG
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ana Aizcorbe & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model," Industrial Organization 0412008, EconWPA.
  2. Agarwal, Rajshree & Gort, Michael, 1996. "The Evolution of Markets and Entry, Exit and Survival of Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 489-98, August.
  3. Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988. "Pattenrs Of Firm Entry And Exit In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Papers 1-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  4. Peter Klenow, 1998. "Learning Curves and the Cyclical Behavior of Manufacturing Industries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 531-550, April.
  5. Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September.
  6. Boucekkine, R. & Germain, M. & Licandro, O., . "Replacement echoes in the vintage capital growth model," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1275, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  7. Carlos J. Serrano, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Transfer and Renewal of Patents," Working Papers tecipa-227, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  8. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-83, August.
  9. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-83, June.
  10. Matthew Mitchell, 2002. "Technological Change and the Scale of Production," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 477-488, April.
  11. Roberto M Samaniego, 2006. "A Theory of Entry and Exit with Embodied Rate of Technical Change," 2006 Meeting Papers 765, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Douglas Dwyer, 1998. "Technology Locks, Creative Destruction, and Non-Convergence in Productivity Levels," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 430-473, April.
  13. Utterback, James M. & Suarez, Fernando F., 1993. "Innovation, competition, and industry structure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, February.
  14. Zhu Wang, 2006. "Learning, diffusion and the industry life cycle," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 04-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  15. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-68, December.
  16. Gregor Andrade & Mark Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 2001. "New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 103-120, Spring.
  17. Ellen R. McGrattan & James A. Schmitz, Jr., 1999. "Maintenance and repair: too big to ignore," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-13.
  18. Klepper, Steven & Simons, Kenneth L., 2005. "Industry shakeouts and technological change," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 23-43, February.
  19. Parente Stephen L., 1994. "Technology Adoption, Learning-by-Doing, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 346-369, August.
  20. Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G.M., 1992. "The Life-Cycle of Competitive Industry," Papers 92-09, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
  21. Agarwal, Rajshree, 1998. "Evolutionary trends of industry variables," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 511-525, July.
  22. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
  23. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1989. "Entry, Exit, and Diffusion with Learning by Doing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 690-99, September.
  24. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Laura Power, 1995. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," Papers 0062, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
  25. Oikawa, Koki, 2010. "Uncertainty-driven growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 897-912, May.
  26. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July.
  27. Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 1993. "The shakeout," Economics Working Papers 33, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  28. Mary E. Deily & Niccie L. McKay & Fred H. Dorner, 2000. "Exit and Inefficiency: The Effects of Ownership Type," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(4), pages 734-747.
  29. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1993. "Industry evolution and transition: the role of information capital," Staff Report 162, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  30. Evans, David S, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 567-81, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Peter Thompson & Mihaela Pintea, 2008. "Sorting, Selection, and Industry Shakeouts," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 23-40, August.
  2. Roberto M. Samaniego, 2008. "Entry, Exit and Investment-Specific Technical Change," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Chung-Yi Tse, 2008. "Diffusion with variable production lead times," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 93(2), pages 177-202, March.
  4. Zhiguo He & Gregor Matvos, 2012. "Debt and Creative Destruction: Why Could Subsidizing Corporate Debt be Optimal?," NBER Working Papers 17920, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Rui Baptista & Murat Karaoez, 2007. "Turbulence in High Growth and Declining Industries," Jena Economic Research Papers 2007-043, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  6. Maria José Gil-Moltó & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2012. "Industry Dynamics and Indeterminacy in an OLG Economy with Endogenous Occupational Choice," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/09, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Sep 2012.
  7. Roberto M. Samaniego, 2008. "Entry, Exit and Investment-Specific Technical Change, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 08 Dec 2008.
  8. Uschi Backes-Gellner & Stephan Veen, 2007. "Aging Workforces and Challenges to Human Resource Management in German Firms," Working Papers 0079, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12520. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.