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Creative Destruction in Industries

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Author Info
Boyan Jovanovic
Chung-Yi Tse

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Abstract

Most industries go through a "shakeout" phase during which the number of producers in the industry declines. Industry output generally continues to rise, however, which implies a reallocation of capacity from exiting firms to incumbents and new entrants. Thus shakeouts seem to be classic creative destruction episodes. Shakeouts of firms tend to occur sooner in industries where technological progress is rapid. Existing models do not explain this. Yet the relation emerges naturally in a vintage-capital model in which shakeouts of firms accompany the replacement of capital, and in which a shakeout is the first replacement echo of the capital created when the industry is born. We fit the model to the Gort-Klepper data and to Agarwal's update of those data.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12520.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12520

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L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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  1. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1989. "Entry, Exit, and Diffusion with Learning by Doing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 690-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Utterback, James M. & Suarez, Fernando F., 1993. "Innovation, competition, and industry structure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gregor Andrade & Mark Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 2001. "New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 103-120, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Carlos J. Serrano, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Transfer and Renewal of Patents," Working Papers tecipa-227, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Matthew Mitchell, 2002. "Technological Change and the Scale of Production," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 477-488, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Agarwal, Rajshree & Gort, Michael, 1996. "The Evolution of Markets and Entry, Exit and Survival of Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 489-98, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988. "Pattenrs Of Firm Entry And Exit In U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Papers 1-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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  21. Klepper, Steven & Simons, Kenneth L., 2005. "Industry shakeouts and technological change," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 23-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-68, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Evans, David S, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 567-81, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Douglas Dwyer, 1998. "Technology Locks, Creative Destruction, and Non-Convergence in Productivity Levels," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 430-473, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1993. "Industry evolution and transition: the role of information capital," Staff Report 162, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter Thompson & Mihaela Pintea, 2008. "Sorting, Selection, and Industry Shakeouts," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 23-40, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Uschi Backes-Gellner & Stephan Veen, 2007. "Aging Workforces and Challenges to Human Resource Management in German Firms," Working Papers 0079, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU). [Downloadable!]
  3. Roberto M. Samaniego, 2008. "Entry, Exit and Investment-Specific Technical Change, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 08 Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Roberto M. Samaniego, 2008. "Entry, Exit and Investment-Specific Technical Change," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  5. Chung-Yi Tse, 2008. "Diffusion with variable production lead times," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 93(2), pages 177-202, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Rui Baptista & Murat Karaoez, 2007. "Turbulence in High Growth and Declining Industries," Jena Economic Research Papers in Economics 2007-043, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics, Thueringer Universitaets- und Landesbibliothek. [Downloadable!]
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