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Learning Curves and the Cyclical Behavior of Manufacturing Industries

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Author Info
Peter Klenow (Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago)

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Abstract

Building on evidence that (a) productivity growth from learning by doing diminishes as experience accumulates with a technology and (b) learning by doing is largely specific to each production technology, this paper models a firm's decision of when to update its technology. The model implies that technology updates endogenously bring large drops in productivity. The model also implies that technology updates are more likely in a boom than in a recession since a high rate of production enables the firm to learn more quickly about the new technology. The forces in this model may help explain some features of plant and industry level data, such as the procyclicality of investment (including plant investment spikes) and the modest correlation between labor input and productivity. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/redy.1998.0014
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 1 (1998)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 531-550
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:1:y:1998:i:2:p:531-550

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O31 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
L6 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Argote, L. & Epple, D., 1990. "Learning Curves In Manufacturing," GSIA Working Papers 89-90-02, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  2. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1993. "The Aggregate Implications of Machine Replacement: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 360-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Parente Stephen L., 1994. "Technology Adoption, Learning-by-Doing, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 346-369, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Phoebus J Dhrymes, 1991. "The Structure Of Production Technology Productivity And Aggregation Effects," Working Papers 91-5, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 1998. "Using Consumer Theory to Test Competing Business Cycle Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 233-261, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Dhymes, P., 1991. "The Structure of production Technology: Productivity and Aggregation Effects," Discussion Papers 1991_07, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  8. Gort, Michael & Klepper, Steven, 1982. "Time Paths in the Diffusion of Product Innovations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 630-53, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Timothy Dunne, 1994. "Plant Age and Technology Use in US. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(3), pages 488-499, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Boyan Jovanovic & Chung-Yi Tse, 2006. "Creative Destruction in Industries," NBER Working Papers 12520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pavlova, Anna, 2003. "Adjustment Costs, Learning-By-Doing, And Technology Adoption Under Uncertainty," Working papers 4369-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  3. Anna Pavlova, . ""Adjustment Costs, Learning-by-Doing, and Technology Adoption under Uncertainty''," CARESS Working Papres 99-07, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  4. Austan Goolsbee, 1998. "The Business Cycle, Financial Performance, and the Retirement of Capital Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 474-496, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Xavier Mateos-Planas, 2001. "Schooling and Distortions in a Vintage Capital Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 127-158, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Georg Duernecker, 2008. "Technology Adoption, Turbulence and the Dynamics of Unemployment," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/10, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alpanda, Sami & Peralta-Alva, Adrian, 2007. "Oil Crisis, Energy-Saving Technological Change and the Stock Market Crash of 1973-74," MPRA Paper 5896, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Peter Thompson, 2008. "Learning by Doing," Working Papers 0806, Florida International University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Quella, NĂºria, 2007. "Intra- and Inter-Sectoral Knowledge Spillovers and TFP Growth Rates," MPRA Paper 2853, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Toshiya Ishikawa, 2004. "Technology Diffusion and Business Cycle Asymmetry," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_016, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
  11. Boyan Jovanovic, 1995. "Learning and Growth," NBER Working Papers 5383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper, 1992. "The Aggregate Implications Of Machine Replacement: Theory And Evidence," Working Papers 92-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Adrian Peralta-Alva & Sami Alpanda, 2006. "Oil crisis, Energy Saving Technological Change, and the Stock Market Collapse of 1974," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 49, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Hendricks, Lutz, . "Equipment Investment and Growth In Developing Countries," Working Papers 97/5, Arizona State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2002. "Moore's Law and Learning-By-Doing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 346-375, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Pavlova, Anna, 2002. "Adjustment Costs, Learning-by-Doing, and Technology Adoption Under Uncertainty," Working papers 4369-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  17. Boyan Jovanovic, 1998. "Michael Gort's Contribution to Economics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 327-337, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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