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Moore's Law and Learning-By-Doing

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  • Boyan Jovanovic
  • Peter L. Rousseau

Abstract

We model Moore's Law as efficiency of computer producers that rises as a by-product of their experience. We find that (1) Because computer prices fall much faster than the prices of electricity-driven and diesel-driven capital ever did, growth in the coming decades should be very fast, and that (2) The obsolescence of firms today occurs faster than before, partly because the physical capital they own becomes obsolete faster.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8762.

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Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8762

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  1. Jovanovic, Boyan & Lach, Saul, 1989. "Entry, Exit, and Diffusion with Learning by Doing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 690-99, September.
  2. Gordon, Robert J., 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226304557, January.
  3. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-83, August.
  4. Devine, Warren D., 1983. "From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 347-372, June.
  5. Greenwood, Jeremy & Yorukoglu, Mehmet, 1997. "1974," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 49-95, June.
    • Greenwood, J. & Yorukoglu, M., 1996. "1974," RCER Working Papers 429, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2001. "Why Wait? A Century of Life Before IPO," NBER Working Papers 8081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Fortin, Pierre & Keil, Manfred & Symons, James, 2001. "The Sources of Unemployment in Canada, 1967-91: Evidence from a Panel of Regions and Demographic Groups," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-93, January.
  8. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
  10. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-84, August.
  11. Rebecca Achee Thornton & Peter Thompson, 2001. "Learning from Experience and Learning from Others: An Exploration of Learning and Spillovers in Wartime Shipbuilding," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
  12. Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1, October.
  13. David, P.A., 1989. "Computer And Dynamo: The Modern Productivity Paradox In A Not-Too Distant Mirror," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 339, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  14. Irwin, Douglas A & Klenow, Peter J, 1994. "Learning-by-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1200-1227, December.
  15. Plutarchos Sakellaris & Dan Wilson, 2000. "The Production-Side Approach to Estimating Embodied Technological Change," Electronic Working Papers 00-002, University of Maryland, Department of Economics.
  16. Peter Klenow, 1998. "Learning Curves and the Cyclical Behavior of Manufacturing Industries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 531-550, April.
  17. Howitt, Peter & Aghion, Philippe, 1998. " Capital Accumulation and Innovation as Complementary Factors in Long-Run Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 111-30, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. " Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Volatility: The Labour Market Nexus," CDMA Working Paper Series 0806, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  2. Nuria Quella, 2006. "Intra- and Inter-sectoral Knowledge Spillovers and TFP Growth Rates," 2006 Meeting Papers 431, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Carrie Jankowski & Richard Porter & Tara Rice, 2007. "Against the tide—currency use among Latin American immigrants in Chicago," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-21.
  4. Groth, Christian & Wendner, Ronald, 2011. "Learning by investing, embodiment, and speed of convergence," MPRA Paper 29008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Peter L. Rousseau & Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "General Purpose Technologies," 2004 Meeting Papers 103, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. J. Bradford DeLong, 2003. "Productivity Growth in the 2000s," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 113-158 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Zhu Wang, 2008. "Income Distribution, Market Size and the Evolution of Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 542-565, July.
  8. Eugene N. White, 2006. "Bubbles and Busts: The 1990s in the Mirror of the 1920s," NBER Working Papers 12138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hyunbae Chun & Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall Morck, 2004. "Patterns of Comovement: The Role of Information Technology in the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 10937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Zhu Wang, 2006. "Learning, diffusion and the industry life cycle," Payments System Research Working Paper PSR WP 04-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. Francois Gourio, 2005. "Operating Leverage, Stock Market Cyclicality, and the Cross-Section of Returns," 2005 Meeting Papers 66, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Boyan Jovanovic, 2002. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Boyan Jovanovic on Technology Adoption," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), November.

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