IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/growch/v52y2021i1p150-166.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unveiling the local determinants of population growth in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Álvarez‐Díaz
  • Béatrice D’Hombres
  • Lewis Dijkstra
  • Claudia Ghisetti
  • Nicola Pontarollo

Abstract

This paper studies the population growth dynamics in European NUTS3 regions over the period of 2000–2015 and offers generalizable evidence on the main drivers of population change at this sub‐level of analysis, which is so far rather unexplored. Results obtained by means of a spatial Durbin model highlight the roles of economic and demographic regional conditions in shaping population dynamics and the minor role of geography and environmental conditions. The fact that geographical polarization of population is occurring, which might result in an increase in regional imbalances, calls for policy actions in mitigating this phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Álvarez‐Díaz & Béatrice D’Hombres & Lewis Dijkstra & Claudia Ghisetti & Nicola Pontarollo, 2021. "Unveiling the local determinants of population growth in the European Union," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 150-166, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:52:y:2021:i:1:p:150-166
    DOI: 10.1111/grow.12469
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.12469
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/grow.12469?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Veneri & Vicente Ruiz, 2016. "Urban-To-Rural Population Growth Linkages: Evidence From Oecd Tl3 Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 3-24, January.
    2. Joan Carles Martori & Philippe Apparicio & André Ngamini Ngui, 2016. "Understanding Immigrant Population Growth Within Urban Areas: A Spatial Econometric Approach," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 215-234, February.
    3. Stephen Gibbons & Henry G. Overman, 2012. "Mostly Pointless Spatial Econometrics?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 172-191, May.
    4. H. Hanson, Gordon, 2005. "Market potential, increasing returns and geographic concentration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, September.
    5. Philip Rees & Nicole Gaag & Joop Beer & Frank Heins, 2012. "European Regional Populations: Current Trends, Future Pathways, and Policy Options [Population des Régions Européennes: Tendances Actuelles, Développements Futurs et Options Politiques]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 28(4), pages 385-416, November.
    6. Rappaport, Jordan, 2007. "Moving to nice weather," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 375-398, May.
    7. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert, 2008. "Lost in space: population growth in the American hinterlands and small cities," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(6), pages 727-757, November.
    8. M Ensar Yesilyurt & J Paul Elhorst, 2017. "Impacts of neighboring countries on military expenditures," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 54(6), pages 777-790, November.
    9. Guangqing Chi & David Marcouiller, 2013. "Natural amenities and their effects on migration along the urban–rural continuum," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 50(3), pages 861-883, June.
    10. Florax, Raymond J. G. M. & Folmer, Hendrik & Rey, Sergio J., 2003. "Specification searches in spatial econometrics: the relevance of Hendry's methodology," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 557-579, September.
    11. Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris & Koomen, Eric, 2017. "Population growth, accessibility spillovers and persistent borders: Historical growth in West-European municipalities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 80-91.
    12. Lee, Bun Song & Chun, Sun Eae & Kim, Suk Young, 2007. "The effects of regional characteristics on population growth in Korean cities, counties and wards," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 490-508, June.
    13. Marlon G. Boarnet & Saksith Chalermpong & Elizabeth Geho, 2005. "Specification issues in models of population and employment growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(1), pages 21-46, March.
    14. Evert Meijers & Martijn Burger & Gilles Duranton, 2016. "Determinants of city growth in Colombia," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(1), pages 101-131, March.
    15. Jesús Mur & Ana Angulo, 2006. "The Spatial Durbin Model and the Common Factor Tests," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 207-226.
    16. James LeSage, 2015. "Software for Bayesian cross section and panel spatial model comparison," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 297-310, October.
    17. Jimenez-Ayora, Pablo & Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet Ali, 2015. "What underlies weak states? The role of terrain ruggedness," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 167-183.
    18. Edward Ludwig Glaeser & Albert Saiz, 2003. "The rise of the skilled city," Working Papers 04-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    19. Jungyul Sohn, 2012. "Does City Location Determine Urban Population Growth? The Case Of Small And Medium Cities In Korea," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 103(3), pages 276-292, July.
    20. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2012. "Urban Growth and Transportation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1407-1440.
    21. Ana Paula Barreira & Joaquim J. S. Ramalho & Thomas Panagopoulos & Maria Helena Guimarães, 2017. "Factors Driving the Population Growth and Decline of Portuguese Cities," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 853-868, December.
    22. Garcia-López, Miquel-Ángel & Holl, Adelheid & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2015. "Suburbanization and highways in Spain when the Romans and the Bourbons still shape its cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 52-67.
    23. Duncan Black & Vernon Henderson, 2003. "Urban evolution in the USA," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 343-372, October.
    24. Willis Lewis, Jr. & Brooke Stanley, 2016. "An Integrated Spatial Model of Population Change in South Carolina Counties," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 46(2), pages 127-142, Summer.
    25. Anselin, Luc & Bera, Anil K. & Florax, Raymond & Yoon, Mann J., 1996. "Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-104, February.
    26. Glaeser, Edward L & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1992. "Growth in Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1126-1152, December.
      • Edward L. Glaeser & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1991. "Growth in Cities," NBER Working Papers 3787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Glaeser, Edward Ludwig & Kallal, Hedi D. & Scheinkman, Jose A. & Shleifer, Andrei, 1992. "Growth in Cities," Scholarly Articles 3451309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    27. Paul Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2006. "Population growth in European cities: Weather matters - but only nationally," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 23-37.
    28. Sato, Yasuhiro & Yamamoto, Kazuhiro, 2005. "Population concentration, urbanization, and demographic transition," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 45-61, July.
    29. Edward L. Glaeser & Janet E. Kohlhase, 2004. "Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Raymond J. G. M. Florax & David A. Plane (ed.), Fifty Years of Regional Science, pages 197-228, Springer.
    30. Mark Partridge & Ray D. Bollman & M. Rose Olfert & Alessandro Alasia, 2007. "Riding the Wave of Urban Growth in the Countryside: Spread, Backwash, or Stagnation?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(2), pages 128-152.
    31. Bernard Trendle, 2009. "The Determinants of Population and Employment Growth in Small Queensland Regions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 295-307, September.
    32. Harry Kelejian, 2008. "A spatial J-test for model specification against a single or a set of non-nested alternatives," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Min Qian & Zhenpeng Cheng & Zhengwen Wang & Dingyi Qi, 2022. "What Affects Rural Ecological Environment Governance Efficiency? Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Juan Hu & Chengjin Ma & Chen Li, 2022. "Can Green Innovation Improve Regional Environmental Carrying Capacity? An Empirical Analysis from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Liang Zhao & Lifei Xu & Ling Li & Jing Hu & Lin Mu, 2022. "Can Inbound Tourism Improve Regional Ecological Efficiency? An Empirical Analysis from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alvarez-Dias, Marcos & D'Hombres, Beatrice & Ghisetti, Claudia & Pontarollo, Nicola & Dijkstra, Lewis, 2018. "The Determinants of Population Growth: Literature review and empirical analysis," Working Papers 2018-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    2. Adelheid Holl, 2018. "Local employment growth patterns and the Great Recession: The case of Spain," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 837-863, September.
    3. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2014. "The Growth of Cities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 5, pages 781-853, Elsevier.
    4. Paolo Veneri & Vicente Ruiz, 2016. "Urban-To-Rural Population Growth Linkages: Evidence From Oecd Tl3 Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 3-24, January.
    5. Mark D. Partridge, 2010. "The duelling models: NEG vs amenity migration in explaining US engines of growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 513-536, August.
    6. Stef Proost & Jacques-François Thisse, 2019. "What Can Be Learned from Spatial Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(3), pages 575-643, September.
    7. Solmaria Halleck Vega & J. Paul Elhorst, 2015. "The Slx Model," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 339-363, June.
    8. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb, 2009. "The Wealth of Cities: Agglomeration Economies and Spatial Equilibrium in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 983-1028, December.
    9. Dentinho, Tomaz Ponce & Reid, Neil, 2021. "Urban growth models. An application to American cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    10. Jordan Rappaport & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2001. "The U.S. as a coastal nation," Research Working Paper RWP 01-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Alessandra de Renzis & Alessandra Faggian & Giulia Urso, 2022. "Distant but Vibrant Places. Local Determinants of Adaptability to Peripherality," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 113(5), pages 483-501, December.
    12. Kim, Ho Yeon, 2012. "Shrinking population and the urban hierarchy," IDE Discussion Papers 360, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    13. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Ali, Kamar & Olfert, M. Rose, 2009. "Agglomeration spillovers and wage and housing cost gradients across the urban hierarchy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 126-140, June.
    14. Anping Chen & Mark D. Partridge, 2013. "When are Cities Engines of Growth in China? Spread and Backwash Effects across the Urban Hierarchy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 1313-1331, September.
    15. Patrícia C. Melo & Conceição Rego & Paulo R. Anciães & Nuno Guiomar & José Muñoz‐Rojas, 2022. "Does road accessibility to cities support rural population growth? Evidence for Portugal between 1991 and 2011," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 443-470, March.
    16. Boris Portnov & Ben Reiser & Moshe Schwartz, 2012. "Does Gibrat’s law for cities hold when location counts?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(1), pages 151-178, February.
    17. Mark D. Partridge & M. Rose Olfert, 2011. "The Winners' Choice: Sustainable Economic Strategies for Successful 21st-Century Regions," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 143-178.
    18. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert, 2009. "Do New Economic Geography agglomeration shadows underlie current population dynamics across the urban hierarchy?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 445-466, June.
    19. Gilles Duranton & Diego Puga, 2023. "Urban Growth and Its Aggregate Implications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2219-2259, November.
    20. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb, 2008. "The Economics of Place-Making Policies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 155-253.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:52:y:2021:i:1:p:150-166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0017-4815 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.