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Population Growth in European Cities: weather matters – but only nationally

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Author Info

  • Paul Cheshire

    (London School of Economics, Department of Geography & Environment)

  • Stefano Magrini

    (Università degli Studi di Venezia 'Ca' Foscari', Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche)

Abstract

This paper investigates differences in the rate of growth of population across the large city-regions of the EU12 between 1980 and 2000. The US model which assumes perfect factor mobility does not seem well adapted to European conditions. There is evidence strongly suggesting that equilibrating migration flows between cities in different countries are highly constrained in the EU. However, quality of life motives do seem to be a significant and important feature of differential population growth rates if measured relative to national rather than EU12 values. Once other factors are allowed for, a systematic and highly significant factor determining rates of urban population growth is climatic variation. Cities with better weather than that of their countries have systematically tended to gain population over the past 20 years once other factors – including natural rates of increase in the areas of each country outside the major cities - are allowed for: there is no such effect for climate variables if expressed relative to the value of the EU12 as a whole. On the other hand, there is evidence that the systematic spatial gains from European integration are reflected in a city’s population growth. The results are tested for spatial dependence and remain robust.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/urb/papers/0506/0506009.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0506009.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 07 Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0506009

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 19
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: growth; cities; quality of life differences; mobility; migration;

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  1. Katrin Rehdanz & David Maddison, 2004. "The Amenity Value of Climate to German Households," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 414, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Paul Cheshire, 2000. "Endogenous Processes in European Regional Growth: Convergence and Policy," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 31(4), pages 455-479.
  3. Graves, Philip E. & Linneman, Peter D., 1979. "Household migration: Theoretical and empirical results," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 383-404, July.
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  5. Graves, Philip E., 1976. "A reexamination of migration, economic opportunity, and the quality of life," MPRA Paper 19918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. P. C. Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2002. "The distinctive determinants of European urban growth : does one size fit all?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 569, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Jordan Rappaport, 1999. "Local Growth Empirics," CID Working Papers 23, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  8. Philip E Graves, 2003. "Nonoptimal levels of suburbanization," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(2), pages 191-198, February.
  9. Graves, Philip E., 1979. "A life-cycle empirical analysis of migration and climate, by race," MPRA Paper 19921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Rodriguez-Pose, Andres, 1998. "Dynamics of Regional Growth in Europe: Social and Political Factors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233831, September.
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  12. Blomquist, Glenn C & Berger, Mark C & Hoehn, John P, 1988. "New Estimates of Quality of Life in Urban Areas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 89-107, March.
  13. Graves, Philip E., 1983. "Migration with a composite amenity: the role of rents," MPRA Paper 19917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. repec:fth:stanho:e-95-4 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Graves, Philip E., 1980. "Migration and climate," MPRA Paper 19916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Gyourko, Joseph & Kahn, Matthew & Tracy, Joseph, 1999. "Quality of life and environmental comparisons," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: P. C. Cheshire & E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1413-1454 Elsevier.
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