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Population Growth in European Cities: weather matters – but only nationally

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Author Info

  • Paul_Cheshire

    (London School of Economics)

  • Stefano_Magrini

    (University of Venice)

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates differences in the rate of growth of population across the large city-regions of the EU12 between 1980 and 2000. The US model which assumes perfect factor mobility does not seem well adapted to European conditions. There is evidence strongly suggesting that equilibrating migration flows between cities in different countries are highly constrained in the EU. However, quality of life motives do seem to be a significant and important feature of differential population growth rates if measured relative to national rather than EU12 values. Once other factors are allowed for, a systematic and highly significant factor determining rates of urban population growth is climatic variation. Cities with better weather than that of their countries have systematically tended to gain population over the past 20 years once other factors – including natural rates of increase in the areas of each country outside the major cities - are allowed for: there is no such effect for climate variables if expressed relative to the value of the EU12 as a whole. On the other hand, there is evidence that the systematic spatial gains from European integration are reflected in a city’s population growth. The results are tested for spatial dependence and remain robust.

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    File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/urb/papers/0410/0410001.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0410001.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: 05 Oct 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0410001

    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 18
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    Web page: http://128.118.178.162

    Related research

    Keywords: Labour mobility; compensating variations; growth; cities; quality of life;

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    References

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    1. Rodriguez-Pose, Andres, 1998. "Dynamics of Regional Growth in Europe: Social and Political Factors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233831.
    2. Rappaport, J., 2000. "Local Growth Empirics," Papers 23, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
    3. Graves, Philip E., 1979. "A life-cycle empirical analysis of migration and climate, by race," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 135-147, April.
    4. Edward L. Glaeser & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1995. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," NBER Working Papers 5013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Katrin Rehdanz & David Maddison, 2004. "The Amenity Value of Climate to German Households," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 414, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Jordan Rappaport, 2003. "Moving to nice weather," Research Working Paper RWP 03-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Graves, Philip E., 1980. "Migration and climate," MPRA Paper 19916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:fth:stanho:e-95-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Graves, Philip E., 1976. "A reexamination of migration, economic opportunity, and the quality of life," MPRA Paper 19918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Cheshire, Paul C. & Magrini, Stefano, 2002. "The distinctive determinants of European urban growth: Does one size fit all?," ERSA conference papers ersa02p100, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Blomquist, Glenn C & Berger, Mark C & Hoehn, John P, 1988. "New Estimates of Quality of Life in Urban Areas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 89-107, March.
    12. Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 1991. "The Structure of Local Public Finance and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 774-806, August.
    13. Graves, Philip E. & Linneman, Peter D., 1979. "Household migration: Theoretical and empirical results," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 383-404, July.
    14. Philip E Graves, 2003. "Nonoptimal levels of suburbanization," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(2), pages 191-198, February.
    15. Gyourko, Joseph & Kahn, Matthew & Tracy, Joseph, 1999. "Quality of life and environmental comparisons," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: P. C. Cheshire & E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1413-1454 Elsevier.
    16. Paul Cheshire, 2000. "Endogenous Processes in European Regional Growth: Convergence and Policy," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 31(4), pages 455-479.
    17. Graves, Philip E., 1983. "Migration with a composite amenity: the role of rents," MPRA Paper 19917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:
    1. Paul Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2005. "European Urban Growth - throwing some Economic Light into the Black Box," ERSA conference papers ersa05p13, European Regional Science Association.

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