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Population Growth in European Cities - Weather Matters, but only Nationally

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  • Paul Cheshire

    ()

  • Stefano Magrini

    ()

Abstract

This paper investigates differences in the rate of growth of population across the large city-regions of the EU12 between 1980 and 2000. The US model which assumes perfect factor mobility does not seem well adapted to European conditions. There is evidence strongly suggesting that equilibrating migration flows between cities in different countries are highly constrained in the EU. However, quality of life motives do seem to be a significant and important feature of differential population growth rates if measured relative to national rather than EU12 values. Once other factors are allowed for, a systematic and highly significant factor determining rates of urban population growth is climatic variation. Cities with better weather than that of their countries have systematically tended to gain population over the past 20 years once other factors – including natural rates of increase in the areas of each country outside the major cities - are allowed for: there is no such effect for climate variables if expressed relative to the value of the EU12 as a whole. On the other hand, there is evidence that the systematic spatial gains from European integration are reflected in a city’s population growth. The results are tested for spatial dependence and remain robust.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa05p12.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p12

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  1. Jordan Rappaport, 1999. "Local Growth Empirics," CID Working Papers 23, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  2. P. C. Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2002. "The distinctive determinants of European urban growth : does one size fit all?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 569, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Paul Cheshire, 2000. "Endogenous Processes in European Regional Growth: Convergence and Policy," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 31(4), pages 455-479.
  4. Graves, Philip E., 1979. "A life-cycle empirical analysis of migration and climate, by race," MPRA Paper 19921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Edward L. Glaeser & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1995. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," NBER Working Papers 5013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Philip E Graves, 2003. "Nonoptimal levels of suburbanization," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(2), pages 191-198, February.
  7. Graves, Philip E., 1976. "A reexamination of migration, economic opportunity, and the quality of life," MPRA Paper 19918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Katrin Rehdanz & David Maddison, 2004. "The Amenity Value of Climate to German Households," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 414, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Rappaport, Jordan, 2007. "Moving to nice weather," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 375-398, May.
  10. Graves, Philip E., 1983. "Migration with a composite amenity: the role of rents," MPRA Paper 19917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Blomquist, Glenn C & Berger, Mark C & Hoehn, John P, 1988. "New Estimates of Quality of Life in Urban Areas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 89-107, March.
  12. Gyourko, Joseph & Kahn, Matthew & Tracy, Joseph, 1999. "Quality of life and environmental comparisons," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: P. C. Cheshire & E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1413-1454 Elsevier.
  13. repec:fth:stanho:e-95-4 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Rodriguez-Pose, Andres, 1998. "Dynamics of Regional Growth in Europe: Social and Political Factors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233831.
  15. Graves, Philip E. & Linneman, Peter D., 1979. "Household migration: Theoretical and empirical results," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 383-404, July.
  16. Graves, Philip E., 1980. "Migration and climate," MPRA Paper 19916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Gyourko, Joseph & Tracy, Joseph, 1991. "The Structure of Local Public Finance and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 774-806, August.
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