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Specification Issues in Models of Population and Employment Growth

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  • Boarnet, Marlon G.
  • Chalermpong, Saksith
  • Geho, Elizabeth

Abstract

Spatial econometric adaptations of population and employment growth models have been used to study the employment impacts of urban rail transit (Bollinger and Ihlanfeldt, 1997), the links between urban and rural development (Henry, Barkley, and Bao, 1997; Schmitt and Henry, 2000), and causality between intra-metropolitan population and employment location (Boarnet, 1994b). Yet the literature has so far given limited attention to two specification issues that are fundamental to the performance of spatial econometric population and employment growth models. First, the weight matrix, which defines how geographic units of observation relate to one another, must be defined a priori, and alternative versions of the weight matrix have rarely been consistently compared. Second, most recent population-employment growth models are lagged adjustment models, yet the estimated lag parameters often imply that the system does not adjust to a long-run equilibrium, violating one of the maintained hypotheses of the lagged adjustment approach. This paper analyzes those three specification issues, and provides insight into both the validity of various econometric practices that have been common in recent literature and the stability of econometric population and employment growth models when typical assumptions and approaches are changed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of California Transportation Center in its series University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers with number qt5fn0m74n.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt5fn0m74n

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Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences;

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  1. Steven C. Deller & Tsung-Hsiu (Sue) Tsai & David W. Marcouiller & Donald B.K. English, 2001. "The Role of Amenities and Quality of Life In Rural Economic Growth," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 352-365.
  2. F Goffette-Nagot & B Schmitt, 1999. "Agglomeration economies and spatial configurations in rural areas," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(7), pages 1239-1257, July.
  3. Deitz, Richard, 1998. "A Joint Model of Residential and Employment Location in Urban Areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 197-215, September.
  4. Bernard Fingleton, 2001. "Equilibrium and Economic Growth: Spatial Econometric Models and Simulations," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 117-147.
  5. Deborah Roberts, 2000. "The Spatial Diffusion of Secondary Impacts: Rural-Urban Spillovers in Grampian, Scotland," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 76(3), pages 395-412.
  6. Alan B. Krueger & Joshua D. Angrist, 1989. "Why do World War II Veterans Earn More Than Nonveterans?," NBER Working Papers 2991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Boarnet Marlon G., 1994. "The Monocentric Model and Employment Location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 79-97, July.
  8. Bollinger, Christopher R. & Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 1997. "The Impact of Rapid Rail Transit on Economic Development: The Case of Atlanta's MARTA," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 179-204, September.
  9. Schmitt, Bertrand & Henry, Mark S., 2000. "Size and growth of urban centers in French labor market areas: consequences for rural population and employment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, January.
  10. G F Mulligan & A C Vias & S M Glavac, 1999. "Initial diagnostics of a regional adjustment model," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(5), pages 855-876, May.
  11. Robin M. Leichenko, 2001. "Growth and Change in U.S. Cities and Suburbs," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 32(3), pages 326-354.
  12. Steinnes, Donald N., 1977. "Causality and intraurban location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 69-79, January.
  13. Bradford, David F & Kelejian, Harry H, 1973. "An Econometric Model of the Flight to the Suburbs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 566-89, May-June.
  14. Bertrand Schmitt & Henry, 2000. "Size and growth of urban centers in French labor market areas : consequences for rural population and employment," Working Papers 156338, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  15. Christopher H. Wheeler, 2001. "A Note on the Spatial Correlation Structure of County-Level Growth in the U.S," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 433-449.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas de Graaff & Frank G. van Oort & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2011. "Regional Population-Employment Dynamics across Different Sectors of the Economy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-129/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Jens Abildtrup & Virginie Piguet & Bertrand Schmitt, 2011. "The impact of agro-food industry on employment and population changes: The case of Denmark and France'," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1622, European Regional Science Association.
  3. Thomas de Graaff & Frank G. van Oort & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2011. "Regional Population-Employment Dynamics across Different Sectors of the Economy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-129/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Geoffrey Hewings & Jae Hong Kim, 2011. "An Application of the Disequilibrium Adjustment Framework to Small Area Forecasting and Impact Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1839, European Regional Science Association.
  5. Deller, Steven C., 2007. "The Role of Microenterprises in Economic Growth: A Panel Study of Wisconsin Counties 1977 to 1997," Staff Paper Series 514, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  6. Deller, Steven C. & Lledo, Victor, 2007. "Amenities and Rural Appalachia Economic Growth," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 36(1), April.
  7. Boarnet, Marlon G. & Chalermpong, Saksith, 2002. "New Highways, Induced Travel, and Urban Growth Patterns: A "Before and After" Test," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7426232j, University of California Transportation Center.
  8. Boarnet, Marlon G. & McLaughlin, Ralph B. & Carruthers, John I., 2011. "Does state growth management change the pattern of urban growth? Evidence from Florida," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 236-252, May.
  9. Cho, Seong-Hoon & Kim, Seung Gyu & Clark, Christopher D. & Park, William M., 2007. "Spatial Analysis of Rural Economic Development Using a Locally Weighted Regression Model," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 36(1), April.
  10. John I. CARRUTHERS & Michael K. HOLLAR & Gordon F. MULLIGAN, 2008. "Growth And Convergence In The Space Economy : Evidence From The United States," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 35-60.
  11. Cho, Seong-Hoon & Lambert, Dayton M. & Roberts, Roland K. & Kim, Seung Gyu, 2008. "Moderating Urban Sprawl through Land Value Taxation," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6150, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  12. P. Wilner Jeanty, 2012. "Stata implementation of the non-parametric spatial heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent estimator," SAN12 Stata Conference 24, Stata Users Group.

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