IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jau/wpaper/2022-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are semi-urban spillovers the answer to left-behind places in rural Europe? The case of the Portuguese municipalities

Author

Listed:
  • Luisa Alamá-Sabater

    (Department of Economics and IIDL, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Miguel Ángel Márquez

    (Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain)

  • Emili Tortosa-Ausina

    (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Júlia Cravo

    (Sectoral Business Statistics Unit, Instituto Nacional de Estatística, Lisboa, Portugal)

Abstract

In the context of an extension of the traditional hypotheses considered by the Carlino-Mills studies, the primary aim of this paper is to test whether spillovers generated by employment change in urban or semi-urban areas have an impact on population growth in neighboring rural municipalities. To do this we develop a spatial econometric model capable of testing all the interactions existing between the different types of territories. We apply the model to 278 continental municipalities in Portugal during the period 2010–2018. The findings are particularly relevant in that they do not corroborate the “jobs follow people” hypothesis, and they reveal the positive and significant interterritorial connections between change in employment in semi-urban municipalities and population change in rural municipalities. The results suggest policies should aim to promote semi-urban-rural diffusion as a way of reversing rural depopulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Luisa Alamá-Sabater & Miguel Ángel Márquez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina & Júlia Cravo, 2022. "Are semi-urban spillovers the answer to left-behind places in rural Europe? The case of the Portuguese municipalities," Working Papers 2022/14, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2022/14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.doctreballeco.uji.es/wpficheros/Alama_et_al_14_2022.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Georgeanne M. Artz & Younjun Kim & Peter F. Orazem, 2016. "Does Agglomeration Matter Everywhere?: New Firm Location Decisions In Rural And Urban Markets," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 72-95, January.
    2. Christian Düben & Melanie Krause, 2021. "Population, light, and the size distribution of cities," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 189-211, January.
    3. Paolo Veneri & Vicente Ruiz, 2016. "Urban-To-Rural Population Growth Linkages: Evidence From Oecd Tl3 Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 3-24, January.
    4. Alexander W. Marré & Anil Rupasingha, 2020. "School quality and rural in‐migration: Can better rural schools attract new residents?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 156-173, January.
    5. Thomas de Graaff & Frank G. van Oort & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2012. "Regional Population–Employment Dynamics Across Different Sectors Of The Economy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 60-84, February.
    6. de Graaff, Thomas & van Oort, Frank G. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2012. "Sectoral heterogeneity, accessibility and population–employment dynamics in Dutch cities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 115-127.
    7. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
    8. Gerke J. Hoogstra & Jouke van Dijk & Raymond J. G. M. Florax, 2017. "Do jobs follow people or people follow jobs? A meta-analysis of Carlino–Mills studies," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 357-378, October.
    9. Sumei Zhang & Jean‐Michel Guldmann, 2010. "Accessibility, Diversity, Environmental Quality and the Dynamics of Intra‐Urban Population and Employment Location," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 85-114, March.
    10. Justin Doran & Noirin McCarthy & Marie O’Connor, 2017. "The employment–population nexus and implications for sustainable economic development: insights from Irish regions using a partial adjustment model," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 508-526, July.
    11. Norbert Szabó & Richárd Farkas & Attila Varga, 2021. "The economic effects of passenger transport infrastructure investments in lagging regions. Would the increase in commuting be beneficial for regional development?," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 2099-2123, December.
    12. Anil Rupasingha & Alexander W Marré, 2020. "Moving to the hinterlands: agglomeration, search costs and urban to rural business migration," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 123-153.
    13. Joanna P. Ganning & Kathy Baylis & Bumsoo Lee, 2013. "Spread And Backwash Effects For Nonmetropolitan Communities In The U.S," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 464-480, August.
    14. Nikolaos Terzidis & Raquel Ortega‐Argilés, 2021. "Employment polarization in regional labor markets: Evidence from the Netherlands," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(5), pages 971-1001, November.
    15. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2004. "Estimation of simultaneous systems of spatially interrelated cross sectional equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 27-50.
    16. Stephan J. Goetz & David L. Debertin, 1996. "Rural Population Decline in the 1980s: Impacts of Farm Structure and Federal Farm Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 517-529.
    17. Manfred M. Fischer & Arthur Getis (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-03647-7, November.
    18. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    19. Heike Delfmann & Sierdjan Koster & Philip McCann & Jouke Van Dijk, 2014. "Population Change and New Firm Formation in Urban and Rural Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 1034-1050, June.
    20. David Peón & Jorge Rodríguez‐Álvarez & Edelmiro López‐Iglesias, 2019. "Spread or backwash: The impact on population dynamics and business performance of a new road in a rural county of Galicia (Spain)," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(6), pages 2479-2502, December.
    21. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
    22. Luisa Alamá-Sabater & Miguel A. Márquez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2020. "Spatio-sectoral heterogeneity and population-employment dynamics: Some implications for territorial development," Working Papers 2020/24, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    23. Dickerson, Andy & Hole, Arne Risa & Munford, Luke A., 2014. "The relationship between well-being and commuting revisited: Does the choice of methodology matter?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 321-329.
    24. Anping Chen & Mark D. Partridge, 2013. "When are Cities Engines of Growth in China? Spread and Backwash Effects across the Urban Hierarchy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 1313-1331, September.
    25. Mark Partridge & Ray D. Bollman & M. Rose Olfert & Alessandro Alasia, 2007. "Riding the Wave of Urban Growth in the Countryside: Spread, Backwash, or Stagnation?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(2), pages 128-152.
    26. Lewis Dijkstra & Hugo Poelman & Paolo Veneri, 2019. "The EU-OECD definition of a functional urban area," OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2019/11, OECD Publishing.
    27. Bertrand Schmitt & Mark Henry & Virginie Piguet & Mohamed Hilal, 2006. "Urban growth effects on rural population, export and service employment: evidence from eastern France," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 40(4), pages 779-801, December.
    28. G F Mulligan & A C Vias & S M Glavac, 1999. "Initial Diagnostics of a Regional Adjustment Model," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 31(5), pages 855-876, May.
    29. Schmitt, Bertrand & Henry, Mark S., 2000. "Size and growth of urban centers in French labor market areas: consequences for rural population and employment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, January.
    30. Niclas Lavesson, 2017. "When And How Does Commuting To Cities Influence Rural Employment Growth?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 631-654, September.
    31. Elias Giannakis & Adriana Bruggeman, 2020. "Regional disparities in economic resilience in the European Union across the urban–rural divide," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 1200-1213, September.
    32. Gebremeskel H. Gebremariam & Tesfa G. Gebremedhin & Peter V. Schaeffer, 2011. "Employment, Income, And Migration In Appalachia: A Spatial Simultaneous Equations Approach," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 102-120, February.
    33. Maureen Kilkenny, 2010. "Urban/Regional Economics And Rural Development," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 449-470, February.
    34. Bertrand B. Schmitt & M.S. Henry, 2000. "Size and growth of urban centers in French labor market areas : consequences for rural population and employment [[Taille et croissance des centres urbains dans les bassins d'emplois en France : co," Post-Print hal-02687942, HAL.
    35. Boarnet Marlon G., 1994. "The Monocentric Model and Employment Location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 79-97, July.
    36. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 2008. "Distance From Urban Agglomeration Economies And Rural Poverty," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 285-310, May.
    37. Tveter, Eivind, 2017. "The effect of airports on regional development: Evidence from the construction of regional airports in Norway," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 50-58.
    38. Isabel Narbón-Perpiñá & Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll & Diego Prior & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2021. "Searching for the optimal territorial structure: the case of Spanish provincial councils," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 645-664, April.
    39. François Perroux, 1950. "Economic Space: Theory and Applications," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 64(1), pages 89-104.
    40. James P. LeSage & Christine Thomas-Agnan, 2015. "Interpreting Spatial Econometric Origin-Destination Flow Models," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 188-208, March.
    41. Sierdjan Koster & Aleid E. Brouwer & Eveline S. van Leeuwen, 2020. "Diversity as the key to success? Urban and rural employment dynamics in the Netherlands," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 1187-1199, September.
    42. Nanxin Deng & Bo Feng & Mark D. Partridge, 2022. "A blessing or curse: the spillover effects of city–county consolidation on local economies," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(9), pages 1571-1588, September.
    43. Taner Osman & Tom Kemeny, 2022. "Local job multipliers revisited," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 150-170, January.
    44. Stephan J. Goetz & David L. Debertin, 2001. "Why Farmers Quit: A County-Level Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(4), pages 1010-1023.
    45. Patrícia C. Melo & Conceição Rego & Paulo R. Anciães & Nuno Guiomar & José Muñoz‐Rojas, 2022. "Does road accessibility to cities support rural population growth? Evidence for Portugal between 1991 and 2011," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 443-470, March.
    46. Mills, Edwin S. & Price, Richard, 1984. "Metropolitan suburbanization and central city problems," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, January.
    47. Gary Bosworth & Viktor Venhorst, 2018. "Economic linkages between urban and rural regions – what’s in it for the rural?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 1075-1085, August.
    48. Alvarez-Dias, Marcos & D'Hombres, Beatrice & Ghisetti, Claudia & Pontarollo, Nicola & Dijkstra, Lewis, 2018. "The Determinants of Population Growth: Literature review and empirical analysis," Working Papers 2018-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luisa Alamá-Sabater & Miguel A. Márquez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2020. "Spatio-sectoral heterogeneity and population-employment dynamics: Some implications for territorial development," Working Papers 2020/24, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    2. Shu-hen Chiang, 2018. "Assessing the Merits of the Urban-Led Policy in China: Spread or Backwash Effect?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-14, February.
    3. Shu‐Hen Chiang, 2012. "The Source of Metropolitan Growth: The Role of Commuting," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 143-166, March.
    4. Chloé Duvivier, 2013. "Does Urban Proximity Enhance Technical Efficiency? Evidence From Chinese Agriculture," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 923-943, December.
    5. Jens Abildtrup & Virginie Piguet & Bertrand Schmitt, 2011. "The impact of agro-food industry on employment and population changes: The case of Denmark and France'," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1622, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Patrícia C. Melo & Conceição Rego & Paulo R. Anciães & Nuno Guiomar & José Muñoz‐Rojas, 2022. "Does road accessibility to cities support rural population growth? Evidence for Portugal between 1991 and 2011," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 443-470, March.
    7. Patrícia C. Melo & Conceição Rego & Paulo Rui Anciães & Nuno Guiomar & José Muñoz-Rojas, 2021. "Does road accessibility to cities support rural population growth? Evidence for Portugal for the 1991-2011 period," Working Papers REM 2021/0165, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    8. Paolo Veneri & Vicente Ruiz, 2016. "Urban-To-Rural Population Growth Linkages: Evidence From Oecd Tl3 Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 3-24, January.
    9. Gerke J. Hoogstra & Jouke van Dijk & Raymond J. G. M. Florax, 2017. "Do jobs follow people or people follow jobs? A meta-analysis of Carlino–Mills studies," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 357-378, October.
    10. Yang, Kai & Lee, Lung-fei, 2017. "Identification and QML estimation of multivariate and simultaneous equations spatial autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 196-214.
    11. AMBA OYON, Claude Marius & Mbratana, Taoufiki, 2017. "Simultaneous equation models with spatially autocorrelated error components," MPRA Paper 82395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Adelheid Holl, 2018. "Local employment growth patterns and the Great Recession: The case of Spain," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 837-863, September.
    13. Marlon G. Boarnet & Saksith Chalermpong & Elizabeth Geho, 2005. "Specification issues in models of population and employment growth," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(1), pages 21-46, March.
    14. Yang, Kai & Lee, Lung-fei, 2021. "Estimation of dynamic panel spatial vector autoregression: Stability and spatial multivariate cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 337-367.
    15. Hannu Tervo, 2009. "Centres and Peripheries in Finland: Granger Causality Tests Using Panel Data," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 377-390.
    16. Simon Choi & Changkeun Park & JiYoung Park, 2014. "A spatio-temporal analysis of population and employment growth for Southern California," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(1), pages 19-40, January.
    17. John I. Carruthers & Gordon F. Mulligan, 2008. "A locational analysis of growth and change in American metropolitan areas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 155-171, June.
    18. de Graaff, Thomas & van Oort, Frank G. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2012. "Sectoral heterogeneity, accessibility and population–employment dynamics in Dutch cities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 115-127.
    19. Marius C. O. Amba & Taoufiki Mbratana & Julie Gallo, 2023. "Spatial panel simultaneous equations models with error components," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1149-1196, September.
    20. Jason P. Brown & Dayton M. Lambert & Raymond J. G. M. Florax, 2013. "The Birth, Death, and Persistence of Firms: Creative Destruction and the Spatial Distribution of U.S. Manufacturing Establishments, 2000–2006," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 89(3), pages 203-226, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    depopulation; left-behind places; neighbors; rural; spatial effects; urban;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2022/14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: María Aurora Garcia Gallego (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ueujies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.