Regional Population–Employment Dynamics Across Different Sectors Of The Economy
AbstractAn important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes thatintrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of localand regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing thespatio-temporal dynamics of population and employment levels or growth traditionally donot include intersectoral economic dynamics. This paper argues and shows that allowingfor economic linkages across sectors in these models adds considerable value, especially inforecasting. An econometric model of population-employment dynamics in which sectoralvariations in economic development are explicitly taken into account is applied to a largeurban planning policy proposal in The Netherlands. The empirical analyses suggest thatpopulation dynamics are largely exogenous, population changes drive employment in particular in the industry and retail sectors, and employment in all sectors depends strongly onintersectoral dynamics. Intersectoral dynamics appear as important drivers of regional sectoral employment changes; they are even more important than population changes, and theireffect shows up clearly even within the Dutch institutional context where strict regulatoryhousing and planning restrictions are enforced.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Regional Science.
Volume (Year): 52 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
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Other versions of this item:
- Thomas de Graaff & Frank G. van Oort & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2011. "Regional Population-Employment Dynamics across Different Sectors of the Economy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-129/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
- R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion
- R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy
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