Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

An Application of the Disequilibrium Adjustment Framework to Small Area Forecasting and Impact Analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Geoffrey Hewings

    ()

  • Jae Hong Kim

Abstract

The disequilibrium adjustment frameworks, pioneered by Carlino & Mills (1987) and further extended by Boarnet (1994a), have been widely adopted by various regional and intra-regional studies, 1) determining whether jobs follow people or people follow jobs or the both; 2) examining the determinants of growth or location decisions; and 3) investigating spread versus backwash effects. Beyond these traditional uses of the framework, this chapter presents an idea of using the model for small area population and employment forecasting and impact analysis. An application using data for the Chicago metropolitan area reveals that the framework, capturing spatial population-employment interaction and adjustment processes, can be a powerful small area forecasting and impact analysis tool, when it is combined with a regional economic forecasting method. Particularly, the spatial econometric specification of the model facilitates the integration of horizontal (across spatial units) as well as vertical (over the hierarchy; macro and sub-regional) dimensions to the analysis of change. This study also discusses some theoretical issues and methodological challenges in this type of application. Keywords: Small-areas Forecasting, Spatial Adjustment, Econometric Input-Output Model.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa11/e110830aFinal01839.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa11p1839.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1839

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria
Web page: http://www.ersa.org

Related research

Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1998. "A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 99-121, July.
  2. David Maddison, 2009. "A Spatio-temporal Model of Farmland Values," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 171-189.
  3. Sergio J. Rey, 2000. "articles: Integrated regional econometric+input-output modeling: Issues and opportunities," Papers in Regional Science, Springer, vol. 79(3), pages 271-292.
  4. G F Mulligan & A C Vias & S M Glavac, 1999. "Initial diagnostics of a regional adjustment model," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(5), pages 855-876, May.
  5. Boarnet, Marlon G. & Chalermpong, Saksith & Geho, Elizabeth, 2001. "Specification Issues in Models of Population and Employment Growth," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5fn0m74n, University of California Transportation Center.
  6. Kelly D. Edmiston, 2004. "The Net Effects of Large Plant Locations and Expansions on County Employment," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 289-320.
  7. Boarnet Marlon G., 1994. "The Monocentric Model and Employment Location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 79-97, July.
  8. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-33, May.
  9. John I. Carruthers & Gordon F. Mulligan, 2008. "A locational analysis of growth and change in American metropolitan areas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 155-171, 06.
  10. Vermeulen, Wouter & van Ommeren, Jos, 2009. "Does land use planning shape regional economies? A simultaneous analysis of housing supply, internal migration and local employment growth in the Netherlands," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 294-310, December.
  11. Bollinger, Christopher R. & Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 1997. "The Impact of Rapid Rail Transit on Economic Development: The Case of Atlanta's MARTA," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 179-204, September.
  12. Shanzi Ke & Edward Feser, 2010. "Count on the Growth Pole Strategy for Regional Economic Growth? Spread-Backwash Effects in Greater Central China," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(9), pages 1131-1147.
  13. Steinnes, Donald N., 1977. "Causality and intraurban location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 69-79, January.
  14. Steven C. Deller & Tsung-Hsiu (Sue) Tsai & David W. Marcouiller & Donald B.K. English, 2001. "The Role of Amenities and Quality of Life In Rural Economic Growth," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 352-365.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p1839. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.