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Are Survey Forecasts of Macroeconomic Variables Rational?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Pearce, Douglas K. & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2007. "Macroeconomic news and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 307-325, October.
  2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys," NBER Working Papers 6926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Raj Aggarwal & Dev Mishra & Craig Wilson, 2018. "Analyst recommendations and the implied cost of equity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 717-743, April.
  4. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2006. "The Forward Exchange Rate Bias Puzzle: Evidence from New Cointegration Tests," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp123, IIIS.
  5. Feng Gao & Fengming Song & Jun Wang, 2009. "Rational or irrational expectations? Evidence from China's stock market," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(5), pages 432-448, November.
  6. Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 6/2005, Bank of Finland.
  7. Richard Podpiera, 2000. "Efficiency of Financial Markets in Transition: The Case of Macroeconomic Releases," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp156, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  8. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
  9. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "House price forecasts in times of crisis: Do forecasters herd?," Discussion Papers 318, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  10. Yamamoto, Ryuichi & Hirata, Hideaki, 2013. "Strategy switching in the Japanese stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2010-2022.
  11. Raj Aggarwal & Brian M. Lucey & Fergal A. O'Connor, 2014. "Rationality in Precious Metals Forward Markets: Evidence of Behavioural Deviations in the Gold Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp462, IIIS.
  12. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
  13. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 383-408, September.
  14. Raj Aggarwal & Winston T. Lin & Sunil K. Mohanty, 2008. "Are Forward Exchange Rates Rational Forecasts of Future Spot Rates? An Improved Econometric Analysis for the Major Currencies," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 1-20, March-Jun.
  15. de Jong, Pieter J. & Apilado, Vince P., 2009. "The changing relationship between earnings expectations and earnings for value and growth stocks during Reg FD," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 435-442, February.
  16. Raj Aggarwal, 2004. "Persistent Puzzles in International Finance and Economics," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 241-250.
  17. Ariel M. Viale & Antoine Giannetti & Luis Garcia-Feijoó, 2020. "The stock market’s reaction to macroeconomic news under ambiguity," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(1), pages 65-97, March.
  18. Aggarwal, Raj & Goodell, John W., 2008. "Equity premia in emerging markets: National characteristics as determinants," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 389-404, October.
  19. Georg Stadtmann & Christian Pierdzioch & Jan Ruelke, 2011. "Scattered Fiscal Forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2558-2568.
  20. Christopher A. Hollrah & Steven A. Sharpe & Nitish R. Sinha, 2017. "What's the Story? A New Perspective on the Value of Economic Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007. "Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
  22. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2002. "Accuracy and rationality of Japanese institutional forecasters," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 203-213, April.
  23. Christopher A. Hollrah & Steven A. Sharpe & Nitish R. Sinha, 2020. "The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "A Test of Forecast Consistency Using USDA Livestock Price Forecasts," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19042, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  25. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2013. "Modeling the horizon-dependent ex-ante risk premium in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 33-54.
  26. Aggarwal, Raj & Mohanty, Sunil, 2000. "Rationality of Japanese macroeconomic survey forecasts: empirical evidence and comparisons with the US," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 21-31, January.
  27. Sunil Mohanty & Edward Aw, 2006. "Rationality of analysts' earnings forecasts: evidence from dow 30 companies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 915-929.
  28. Raj Aggarwal & Sijing Zong, 2008. "Behavioral Biases in Forward Rates as Forecasts of Future Exchange Rates: Evidence of Systematic Pessimism and Under-Reaction," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(3-4), pages 241-277, September.
  29. Campbell, Sean D. & Sharpe, Steven A., 2009. "Anchoring Bias in Consensus Forecasts and Its Effect on Market Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 369-390, April.
  30. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, November.
  31. Berna Karali & Walter N. Thurman, 2009. "Announcement effects and the theory of storage: an empirical study of lumber futures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 421-436, July.
  32. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  33. Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael & Pesavento, Elena, 2004. "Optimal Power for Testing Potential Cointegrating Vectors with Known," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt2bv7n071, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  34. Piotr Białowolski & Tomasz Kuszewski & Bartosz Witkowski, 2010. "Business Survey Data in Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators with Combined Forecasts," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 4(4), December.
  35. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Shazali, Abu Mansor, 2011. "Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Business Expectations: Implications from the Malaysian Agricultural Sector," MPRA Paper 36661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Félix, Luiz & Kräussl, Roman & Stork, Philip, 2018. "Predictable biases in macroeconomic forecasts and their impact across asset classes," CFS Working Paper Series 596, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  37. James Ming Chen, 2017. "Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing," Quantitative Perspectives on Behavioral Economics and Finance, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-319-63465-4, November.
  38. Hess, Dieter & Orbe, Sebastian, 2011. "Irrationality or efficiency of macroeconomic survey forecasts? Implications from the anchoring bias test," CFR Working Papers 11-13, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
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