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A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long-Run Inflation Expectations

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers 2138, Banco de España.
  2. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2018. "New VAR evidence on monetary transmission channels: temporary interest rate versus inflation target shocks," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 274, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
  3. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1755, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 614-627, August.
  5. Juan Angel Garcia & Sebastian Werner, 2018. "Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2018/167, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
  7. Martins, Manuel Mota Freitas & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "Forecasting inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Frequency matters," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020, Bank of Finland.
  8. Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2021. "Inflation Dynamics and Forecast: Frequency Matters," CEF.UP Working Papers 2101, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  9. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2022. "Macroeconomic changes with declining trend inflation: Complementarity with the superstar firm hypothesis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  11. Hauber, Philipp & Schumacher, Christian, 2021. "Precision-based sampling with missing observations: A factor model application," Discussion Papers 11/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  12. Marente Vlekke & Martin Mellens, 2020. "An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 416.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  13. Andriantomanga, Zo, 2023. "The role of survey-based expectations in real-time forecasting of US inflation," MPRA Paper 119904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
  15. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  16. Marente Vlekke & Martin Mellens & Siem Jan Koopmans, 2020. "An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area," CPB Discussion Paper 416, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_008 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Florian Huber & Daniel Kaufmann, 2020. "Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(348), pages 1016-1036, October.
  19. Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2021. "Inflation Dynamics and Forecast: Frequency Matters," CEF.UP Working Papers 2101, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  20. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
  21. Diegel, Max, 2022. "Time-varying credibility, anchoring and the Fed's inflation target," Discussion Papers 2022/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  22. Francesca Rondina, 2018. "Estimating Unobservable Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, February.
  23. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
  24. Murasawa Yasutomo, 2022. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(3), pages 387-415, June.
  25. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
  26. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2017. "Forecasting inflation: Phillips curve effects on services price measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 442-457.
  27. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
  28. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2017. "Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  29. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation," IMF Working Papers 2018/154, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Bowen Fu, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2023. "Structural shocks and trend inflation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2023_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  31. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
  32. Arbex, Marcelo & Caetano, Sidney & Correa, Wilson, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of inflation target uncertainty shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 111-115.
  33. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Estimating the US trend short-term interest rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
  34. Feldkircher, Martin & Siklos, Pierre L., 2019. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 217-241.
  35. Baxa Jaromír & Plašil Miroslav & Vašíček Bořek, 2017. "Inflation and the steeplechase between economic activity variables: evidence for G7 countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-42, January.
  36. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  37. Chew Lian Chua & Tim Robinson, 2018. "Why Has Australian Wages Growth Been So Low? A Phillips Curve Perspective," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(S1), pages 11-32, June.
  38. Pär Österholm & Aubrey Poon, 2023. "Trend Inflation in Sweden," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4707-4716, October.
  39. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  40. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  41. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  42. Nikita D. Fokin & Ekaterina V. Malikova & Andrey V. Polbin, 2024. "Time-varying parameters error correction model for real ruble exchange rate and oil prices: What has changed due to capital control and sanctions?," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 10(1), pages 20-33, March.
  43. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.
  44. Cecchetti, Stephen & Feroli, Michael & Hooper, Peter & Kashyap, Anil & Schoenholtz, Kermit L., 2017. "Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation’s Simple Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 11925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Fu, Bowen, 2020. "Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 320-340.
  46. Kristin Forbes, 2019. "Has globalization changed the inflation process?," BIS Working Papers 791, Bank for International Settlements.
  47. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
  48. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  49. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org.
  50. Marco Gross & Willi Semmler, 2019. "Mind the Output Gap: The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation during Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 817-848, August.
  51. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_004 is not listed on IDEAS
  52. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  53. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
  54. Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2020. "Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequency Matters," CEF.UP Working Papers 2001, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  55. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.
  56. Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Assessing the Synchronicity and Nature of Australian State Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(307), pages 372-390, December.
  57. James Mitchell & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 23-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  58. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2023. "Evidence on monetary transmission and the role of imperfect information: Interest rate versus inflation target shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  59. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2016. "The roles of inflation expectations, core inflation, and slack in real-time inflation forecasting," Working Papers 1613, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  60. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
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