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Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
  2. Mueller-Frank, Manuel, 2014. "Does one Bayesian make a difference?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 423-452.
  3. Peter Haan & Chen Sun & Felix Weinhardt & Georg Weizsäcker, 2025. "Measuring Long-Run Expectations that Correlate with Investment Decisions," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0070, Berlin School of Economics.
  4. Heraud, Florian & Page, Lionel, 2024. "Does the left-digit bias affect prices in financial markets?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 20-29.
  5. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
  6. Spyros Galanis & Christos A Ioannou & Stelios Kotronis, 2024. "Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(6), pages 3423-3467.
  7. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578-578, May.
  8. Spyros Galanis & Christos A. Ioannou & Stelios Kotronis, 2023. "Supplementary appendix to Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 2023_05, Durham University, Department of Economics.
  9. Bo Cowgill & Eric Zitzewitz, 2015. "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1309-1341.
  10. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 349-382, March.
  11. Georg Graetz, 2019. "Labor Demand in the Past, Present, and Future," European Economy - Discussion Papers 114, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  12. Gabriela Victoria ANGHELACHE & Prof. Vladimir MODRAK & Madalina Gabriela ANGHEL & Marius POPOVICI, 2016. "Portfolio Management and Predictability," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 59-63, January.
  13. Thomas Ferguson & Paul Jorgensen & Jie Chen, 2016. "How Money Drives US Congressional Elections," Working Papers Series 48, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
  14. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Predicting catastrophe risk: Evidence from catastrophe bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  15. Atanasov, Pavel & Witkowski, Jens & Mellers, Barbara & Tetlock, Philip, 2025. "Crowd prediction systems: Markets, polls, and elite forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 580-595.
  16. Spyros Galanis & Sergei Mikhalishchev, 2024. "Information Aggregation with Costly Information Acquisition," Papers 2406.07186, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
  17. Franch, Fabio, 2021. "Political preferences nowcasting with factor analysis and internet data: The 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
  18. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Ioan Constantin DIMA & Mãdãlina-Gabriela ANGHEL, 2016. "Using the Autoregressive Model for the Economic Forecast during the Period 2014- 2018," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(1), pages 21-31, January.
  19. Victor Olkhov, 2023. "Economic Complexity Limits Accuracy of Price Probability Predictions by Gaussian Distributions," Papers 2309.02447, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
  20. Alejandro G Graziano & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2021. "Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(635), pages 1150-1185.
  21. Sarbast Moslem & Tiziana Campisi & Agnieszka Szmelter-Jarosz & Szabolcs Duleba & Kh Md Nahiduzzaman & Giovanni Tesoriere, 2020. "Best–Worst Method for Modelling Mobility Choice after COVID-19: Evidence from Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, August.
  22. Kai Fischer & W. Benedikt Schmal, 2025. "Pricing in response to new information: The case of betting markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 63(1), pages 236-264, January.
  23. Polson Nicholas G. & Stern Hal S., 2015. "The implied volatility of a sports game," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 145-153, September.
  24. Lionel Page & Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "How Much Information Is Incorporated into Financial Asset Prices? Experimental Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4412-4449.
  25. Dennis Halcoussis & Anton D. Lowenberg & G. Michael Phillips, 2024. "The COVID effect: an empirical analysis of the pandemic and the 2020 U.S. presidential election," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(4), pages 1130-1144, December.
  26. Alfredo Aloi & Borja Alonso & Juan Benavente & Rubén Cordera & Eneko Echániz & Felipe González & Claudio Ladisa & Raquel Lezama-Romanelli & Álvaro López-Parra & Vittorio Mazzei & Lucía Perrucci & Darí, 2020. "Effects of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Urban Mobility: Empirical Evidence from the City of Santander (Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-18, May.
  27. Linardi, Sera, 2017. "Accounting for noise in the microfoundations of information aggregation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 334-353.
  28. Boleslavsky, Raphael & Kelly, David L. & Taylor, Curtis R., 2017. "Selloffs, bailouts, and feedback: Can asset markets inform policy?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 294-343.
  29. Kyle C. Meng, 2017. "Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 748-784, March.
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