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The COVID effect: an empirical analysis of the pandemic and the 2020 U.S. presidential election

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  • Dennis Halcoussis

    (California State University)

  • Anton D. Lowenberg

    (California State University)

  • G. Michael Phillips

    (California State University, Northridge)

Abstract

The impact of the COVID pandemic on the 2020 election outcome is analyzed using Iowa Electronic Market data, measures of socially and economically driven market volatility, a measure of COVID severity, and selected election-related events. Building on research regarding two previous U.S. presidential elections, we find that the pandemic helped the incumbent in two ways. The largest impact supporting the incumbent came from the apparent medical severity. A secondary impact came from social and economic volatility with the surprising finding that both risks helped the incumbent relative to the challenger. However, these impacts were not adequate to overcome the relatively large advantage of the challenger.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Halcoussis & Anton D. Lowenberg & G. Michael Phillips, 2024. "The COVID effect: an empirical analysis of the pandemic and the 2020 U.S. presidential election," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(4), pages 1130-1144, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:48:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s12197-024-09677-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-024-09677-8
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    1. Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen & Ghanbari, Ali & Malekpour, Mohammad-Reza & Ghamari, Seyyed-Hadi & Azadnajafabad, Sina & Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar & Keykhaei, Mohammad & Haghshenas, Rosa & Golestani, Ali & Ra, 2023. "Exploring the clinical benefit of ventilation therapy across various patient groups with COVID-19 using real-world data," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 273506, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Harold Clarke & Marianne C. Stewart & Karl Ho, 2021. "Did Covid‐19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2194-2209, September.
    3. Dennis Halcoussis & Anton D. Lowenberg & G. Michael Phillips, 2020. "An Empirical Test of the Comey Effect on the 2016 Presidential Election," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(1), pages 161-171, January.
    4. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
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