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Did Covid‐19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election

Author

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  • Harold Clarke
  • Marianne C. Stewart
  • Karl Ho

Abstract

Objective This article investigates the impact of public reactions to the Covid‐19 panemic on voting for former President Donald Trump in the 2020 American presidential election. Methods The impact of the pandemic on voting is assessed by multivariate statistical analyses of representative national survey data gathered before and after the 2020 presidential election. Results Analyses show that voters reacted very negatively to Trump's handling of the pandemic. Controlling for several other relevant factors, these reactions affected voting for Trump and exerted a significant impact on the election outcome. Conclusion Before the onset of Covid‐19 Trump had a very narrow path to victory in 2020, and the pandemic did much to ensure his defeat.

Suggested Citation

  • Harold Clarke & Marianne C. Stewart & Karl Ho, 2021. "Did Covid‐19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2194-2209, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:102:y:2021:i:5:p:2194-2209
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12992
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521707404, January.
    2. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521881029, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kirill Chmel & Aigul Klimova & Nikita Savin, 2023. "Saving lives or saving the economy? Support for the incumbent during the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 291-307, July.
    2. Dennis Halcoussis & Anton D. Lowenberg & G. Michael Phillips, 2024. "The COVID effect: an empirical analysis of the pandemic and the 2020 U.S. presidential election," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(4), pages 1130-1144, December.
    3. Lorena Barberia & Thomas Plümper & Guy D. Whitten, 2021. "The political science of Covid‐19: An introduction," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2045-2054, September.

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