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Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Zhang, Xingxing & Lovati, Marco & Vigna, Ilaria & Widén, Joakim & Han, Mengjie & Gal, Csilla & Feng, Tao, 2018. "A review of urban energy systems at building cluster level incorporating renewable-energy-source (RES) envelope solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1034-1056.
  2. Fan, Jie & Wang, Lei & Zhang, Zhen & Liu, Ming & Cao, Xinyue & Gong, Min & Tang, Qiuping & She, Chao & Qi, Fang & Si, Hucheng & Song, Dan & Zhang, Qiyuan & Xie, Peng, 2024. "Approaches to improve the accuracy of estimating the diffuse fraction of 1-min resolution global horizontal irradiance using cloud images," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
  3. Hugo Bezerra Menezes Leite & Hamidreza Zareipour, 2023. "Six Days Ahead Forecasting of Energy Production of Small Behind-the-Meter Solar Sites," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, February.
  4. Quan, Hao & Yang, Dazhi, 2020. "Probabilistic solar irradiance transposition models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  5. Mari R. Tye & Sue Ellen Haupt & Eric Gilleland & Christina Kalb & Tara Jensen, 2019. "Assessing Evidence for Weather Regimes Governing Solar Power Generation in Kuwait," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-17, November.
  6. Li, Rui & Reich, Brian J. & Bondell, Howard D., 2021. "Deep distribution regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
  7. Michael Kostmann & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2019. "Forecasting in Blockchain-Based Local Energy Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-27, July.
  8. Gao, Yuan & Miyata, Shohei & Akashi, Yasunori, 2022. "Multi-step solar irradiation prediction based on weather forecast and generative deep learning model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 637-650.
  9. Yubo Wang & Chao Huo & Fei Xu & Libin Zheng & Ling Hao, 2025. "Ultra-Short-Term Distributed Photovoltaic Power Probabilistic Forecasting Method Based on Federated Learning and Joint Probability Distribution Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-21, January.
  10. Aguilar, Diego & Quinones, Jhon J. & Pineda, Luis R. & Ostanek, Jason & Castillo, Luciano, 2024. "Optimal scheduling of renewable energy microgrids: A robust multi-objective approach with machine learning-based probabilistic forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
  11. Nikolaos Kolokas & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dimitrios Tzovaras, 2021. "Multi-Step Energy Demand and Generation Forecasting with Confidence Used for Specification-Free Aggregate Demand Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-36, May.
  12. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
  13. Nie, Yuhao & Li, Xiatong & Paletta, Quentin & Aragon, Max & Scott, Andea & Brandt, Adam, 2024. "Open-source sky image datasets for solar forecasting with deep learning: A comprehensive survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
  14. Reza Fachrizal & Joakim Munkhammar, 2020. "Improved Photovoltaic Self-Consumption in Residential Buildings with Distributed and Centralized Smart Charging of Electric Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, March.
  15. Sun, Mucun & Feng, Cong & Zhang, Jie, 2020. "Probabilistic solar power forecasting based on weather scenario generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
  16. Müller, Alfred & Reuber, Matthias, 2023. "A copula-based time series model for global horizontal irradiation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 869-883.
  17. Takahiro Takamatsu & Hideaki Ohtake & Takashi Oozeki & Tosiyuki Nakaegawa & Yuki Honda & Masahiro Kazumori, 2021. "Regional Solar Irradiance Forecast for Kanto Region by Support Vector Regression Using Forecast of Meso-Ensemble Prediction System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, June.
  18. John Boland & Sleiman Farah, 2021. "Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind and Solar Farm Output," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-15, August.
  19. Antonio Bracale & Guido Carpinelli & Pasquale De Falco, 2019. "Developing and Comparing Different Strategies for Combining Probabilistic Photovoltaic Power Forecasts in an Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
  20. Unterberger, Viktor & Lichtenegger, Klaus & Kaisermayer, Valentin & Gölles, Markus & Horn, Martin, 2021. "An adaptive short-term forecasting method for the energy yield of flat-plate solar collector systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
  21. Liu, Da & Sun, Kun, 2019. "Random forest solar power forecast based on classification optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
  22. Niu, Yinsen & Song, Jifeng & Zou, Lianglin & Yan, Zixuan & Lin, Xilong, 2024. "Cloud detection method using ground-based sky images based on clear sky library and superpixel local threshold," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
  23. Doubleday, Kate & Lara, José Daniel & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2022. "Investigation of stochastic unit commitment to enable advanced flexibility measures for high shares of solar PV," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
  24. Aslam, Sheraz & Herodotou, Herodotos & Mohsin, Syed Muhammad & Javaid, Nadeem & Ashraf, Nouman & Aslam, Shahzad, 2021. "A survey on deep learning methods for power load and renewable energy forecasting in smart microgrids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  25. Carla Sahori Seefoo Jarquin & Alessandro Gandelli & Francesco Grimaccia & Marco Mussetta, 2023. "Short-Term Probabilistic Load Forecasting in University Buildings by Means of Artificial Neural Networks," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-15, April.
  26. du Plessis, A.A. & Strauss, J.M. & Rix, A.J., 2021. "Short-term solar power forecasting: Investigating the ability of deep learning models to capture low-level utility-scale Photovoltaic system behaviour," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
  27. Elena Collino & Dario Ronzio, 2021. "Exploitation of a New Short-Term Multimodel Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Method in the Very Short-Term Horizon to Derive a Multi-Time Scale Forecasting System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-30, February.
  28. Wakui, Tetsuya & Sawada, Kento & Yokoyama, Ryohei & Aki, Hirohisa, 2019. "Predictive management for energy supply networks using photovoltaics, heat pumps, and battery by two-stage stochastic programming and rule-based control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1302-1319.
  29. Mathieu David & Joaquín Alonso-Montesinos & Josselin Le Gal La Salle & Philippe Lauret, 2023. "Probabilistic Solar Forecasts as a Binary Event Using a Sky Camera," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-18, October.
  30. Mashlakov, Aleksei & Kuronen, Toni & Lensu, Lasse & Kaarna, Arto & Honkapuro, Samuli, 2021. "Assessing the performance of deep learning models for multivariate probabilistic energy forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
  31. Udenze, Peter I. & Gong, Jiaqi & Soltani, Shohreh & Li, Dawen, 2025. "A deep neural network with two-step decomposition technique for predicting ultra-short-term solar power and electrical load," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
  32. Mitrentsis, Georgios & Lens, Hendrik, 2022. "An interpretable probabilistic model for short-term solar power forecasting using natural gradient boosting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
  33. Àlex Alonso & Jordi de la Hoz & Helena Martín & Sergio Coronas & Pep Salas & José Matas, 2020. "A Comprehensive Model for the Design of a Microgrid under Regulatory Constraints Using Synthetical Data Generation and Stochastic Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-26, October.
  34. Ahmad, Muhammad Waseem & Mourshed, Monjur & Rezgui, Yacine, 2018. "Tree-based ensemble methods for predicting PV power generation and their comparison with support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 465-474.
  35. Chen, Minghao & Xie, Zhiyuan & Sun, Yi & Zheng, Shunlin, 2023. "The predictive management in campus heating system based on deep reinforcement learning and probabilistic heat demands forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
  36. Maria da Graça Ruano & Antonio Ruano, 2024. "A Multi-Step Ensemble Approach for Energy Community Day-Ahead Net Load Point and Probabilistic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-49, January.
  37. Chi, Lixun & Qadrdan, Meysam & Chaudry, Modassar & Su, Huai & Zhang, Jinjun, 2024. "Reliability of net-zero energy systems for South Wales," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
  38. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Rodrigo Amaro e Silva & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira, 2022. "Review on Spatio-Temporal Solar Forecasting Methods Driven by In Situ Measurements or Their Combination with Satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Estimates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
  39. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2019. "Renewable generation forecast studies – Review and good practice guidance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 312-322.
  40. Zhang, Gang & Yang, Dazhi & Galanis, George & Androulakis, Emmanouil, 2022. "Solar forecasting with hourly updated numerical weather prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  41. Wang, Hu & Mao, Lei & Zhang, Heng & Wu, Qiang, 2024. "Multi-prediction of electric load and photovoltaic solar power in grid-connected photovoltaic system using state transition method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
  42. Bufalo, Michele & Fanelli, Viviana, 2025. "A seasonal two-factor model for solar energy production: A climate extreme events analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  43. Srinivasan, Arvind & Wu, Raphael & Heer, Philipp & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2023. "Impact of forecast uncertainty and electricity markets on the flexibility provision and economic performance of highly-decarbonized multi-energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
  44. Yun Duan, 2022. "A Novel Interval Energy-Forecasting Method for Sustainable Building Management Based on Deep Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-18, July.
  45. Che, Yulong & Wang, Xiaoru & Ge, Leijiao & Lin, Hongjian & Lyu, Xiaoqin & Su, Hongsheng & Wang, Hao, 2025. "A review of research on traction load models and modeling methods for electrified railways," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
  46. Ricardo Aler & Javier Huertas-Tato & José M. Valls & Inés M. Galván, 2019. "Improving Prediction Intervals Using Measured Solar Power with a Multi-Objective Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-19, December.
  47. Zhang, Wenyu & Chen, Qian & Yan, Jianyong & Zhang, Shuai & Xu, Jiyuan, 2021. "A novel asynchronous deep reinforcement learning model with adaptive early forecasting method and reward incentive mechanism for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  48. Wassila Tercha & Sid Ahmed Tadjer & Fathia Chekired & Laurent Canale, 2024. "Machine Learning-Based Forecasting of Temperature and Solar Irradiance for Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-20, February.
  49. Oliver Doelle & Nico Klinkenberg & Arvid Amthor & Christoph Ament, 2023. "Probabilistic Intraday PV Power Forecast Using Ensembles of Deep Gaussian Mixture Density Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, January.
  50. Kaiyan Wang & Haodong Du & Rong Jia & Hongtao Jia, 2022. "Performance Comparison of Bayesian Deep Learning Model and Traditional Bayesian Neural Network in Short-Term PV Interval Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-27, October.
  51. Leal, Jairon Isaias & Pitombeira-Neto, Anselmo Ramalho & Bueno, André Valente & Costa Rocha, Paulo Alexandre & de Andrade, Carla Freitas, 2025. "Probabilistic wind speed forecasting via Bayesian DLMs and its application in green hydrogen production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
  52. Yagli, Gokhan Mert & Yang, Dazhi & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2022. "Ensemble solar forecasting and post-processing using dropout neural network and information from neighboring satellite pixels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  53. Thomas Carrière & Rodrigo Amaro e Silva & Fuqiang Zhuang & Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan & Philippe Blanc, 2021. "A New Approach for Satellite-Based Probabilistic Solar Forecasting with Cloud Motion Vectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
  54. Luis Mazorra-Aguiar & Philippe Lauret & Mathieu David & Albert Oliver & Gustavo Montero, 2021. "Comparison of Two Solar Probabilistic Forecasting Methodologies for Microgrids Energy Efficiency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26, March.
  55. Fuqiang Li & Shiying Zhang & Wenxuan Li & Wei Zhao & Bingkang Li & Huiru Zhao, 2019. "Forecasting Hourly Power Load Considering Time Division: A Hybrid Model Based on K-means Clustering and Probability Density Forecasting Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-17, December.
  56. Buzna, Luboš & De Falco, Pasquale & Ferruzzi, Gabriella & Khormali, Shahab & Proto, Daniela & Refa, Nazir & Straka, Milan & van der Poel, Gijs, 2021. "An ensemble methodology for hierarchical probabilistic electric vehicle load forecasting at regular charging stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
  57. Li, Binghui & Feng, Cong & Siebenschuh, Carlo & Zhang, Rui & Spyrou, Evangelia & Krishnan, Venkat & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Zhang, Jie, 2022. "Sizing ramping reserve using probabilistic solar forecasts: A data-driven method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
  58. Zhou, Heng & Zheng, Peijun & Dong, Jiuqing & Liu, Jiang & Nakanishi, Yosuke, 2024. "Interpretable feature selection and deep learning for short-term probabilistic PV power forecasting in buildings using local monitoring data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
  59. Ling Miao & Ning Zhou & Jianwei Ma & Hao Liu & Jian Zhao & Xiaozhao Wei & Jingyuan Yin, 2025. "Current Status, Challenges and Future Perspectives of Operation Optimization, Power Prediction and Virtual Synchronous Generator of Microgrids: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-41, July.
  60. AlSkaif, Tarek & Dev, Soumyabrata & Visser, Lennard & Hossari, Murhaf & van Sark, Wilfried, 2020. "A systematic analysis of meteorological variables for PV output power estimation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 12-22.
  61. Wang, Xiaoyang & Sun, Yunlin & Luo, Duo & Peng, Jinqing, 2022. "Comparative study of machine learning approaches for predicting short-term photovoltaic power output based on weather type classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
  62. Yue Ma & Xiaodong Chu, 2022. "Optimizing Low-Carbon Pathway of China’s Power Supply Structure Using Model Predictive Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
  63. Massaoudi, Mohamed & Refaat, Shady S. & Chihi, Ines & Trabelsi, Mohamed & Oueslati, Fakhreddine S. & Abu-Rub, Haitham, 2021. "A novel stacked generalization ensemble-based hybrid LGBM-XGB-MLP model for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
  64. Gu, Bo & Shen, Huiqiang & Lei, Xiaohui & Hu, Hao & Liu, Xinyu, 2021. "Forecasting and uncertainty analysis of day-ahead photovoltaic power using a novel forecasting method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
  65. Hasan, Kazi Nazmul & Preece, Robin & Milanović, Jovica V., 2019. "Existing approaches and trends in uncertainty modelling and probabilistic stability analysis of power systems with renewable generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 168-180.
  66. Yuan, Feng & Chen, Zhongsheng & Liang, Yujia, 2024. "Precise solar radiation forecasting for sustainable energy integration: A hybrid CEEMD-SCM-GA-LGBM model for day-ahead power and hydrogen production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PC).
  67. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
  68. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Helena Martín & Sergio Coronas & Jordi de la Hoz, 2022. "Optimization Models under Uncertainty in Distributed Generation Systems: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-40, March.
  69. Yang, Dazhi & Wu, Elynn & Kleissl, Jan, 2019. "Operational solar forecasting for the real-time market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1499-1519.
  70. Mahtab Kaffash & Glenn Ceusters & Geert Deconinck, 2021. "Interval Optimization to Schedule a Multi-Energy System with Data-Driven PV Uncertainty Representation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-20, May.
  71. Erdener, Burcin Cakir & Feng, Cong & Doubleday, Kate & Florita, Anthony & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2022. "A review of behind-the-meter solar forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  72. van der Meer, Dennis & Wang, Guang Chao & Munkhammar, Joakim, 2021. "An alternative optimal strategy for stochastic model predictive control of a residential battery energy management system with solar photovoltaic," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
  73. Bo Gu & Xi Li & Fengliang Xu & Xiaopeng Yang & Fayi Wang & Pengzhan Wang, 2023. "Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis of Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Based on WT-CNN-BiLSTM-AM-GMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-27, April.
  74. Lu, Xiaoxing & Li, Kangping & Xu, Hanchen & Wang, Fei & Zhou, Zhenyu & Zhang, Yagang, 2020. "Fundamentals and business model for resource aggregator of demand response in electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
  75. Wang, Yun & Zhang, Fan & Kou, Hongbo & Zou, Runmin & Hu, Qinghua & Wang, Jianzhou & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2025. "A review of predictive uncertainty modeling techniques and evaluation metrics in probabilistic wind speed and wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 396(C).
  76. Lauret, Philippe & Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo & Amaro e Silva, Rodrigo & Boland, John & David, Mathieu & Herzberg, Wiebke & Le Gall La Salle, Josselin & Lorenz, Elke & Visser, Lennard & van Sark, Wilfried, 2024. "The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts: A probabilistic benchmarking exercise," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PB).
  77. Zhang, Bidan & He, Guannan & Du, Yang & Wen, Haoran & Huan, Xintao & Xing, Bowen & Huang, Jingsi, 2024. "Assessment of the economic impact of forecasting errors in Peer-to-Peer energy trading," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 374(C).
  78. Wang, Yun & Xu, Houhua & Song, Mengmeng & Zhang, Fan & Li, Yifen & Zhou, Shengchao & Zhang, Lingjun, 2023. "A convolutional Transformer-based truncated Gaussian density network with data denoising for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
  79. Carpentieri, A. & Folini, D. & Nerini, D. & Pulkkinen, S. & Wild, M. & Meyer, A., 2023. "Intraday probabilistic forecasts of surface solar radiation with cloud scale-dependent autoregressive advection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
  80. Pierro, Marco & De Felice, Matteo & Maggioni, Enrico & Moser, David & Perotto, Alessandro & Spada, Francesco & Cornaro, Cristina, 2020. "Residual load probabilistic forecast for reserve assessment: A real case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 508-522.
  81. Houben, Nikolaus & Cosic, Armin & Stadler, Michael & Mansoor, Muhammad & Zellinger, Michael & Auer, Hans & Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2023. "Optimal dispatch of a multi-energy system microgrid under uncertainty: A renewable energy community in Austria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
  82. He, Yaoyao & Qin, Yang & Wang, Shuo & Wang, Xu & Wang, Chao, 2019. "Electricity consumption probability density forecasting method based on LASSO-Quantile Regression Neural Network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 565-575.
  83. Chen, Xiaoyang & Du, Yang & Lim, Enggee & Fang, Lurui & Yan, Ke, 2022. "Towards the applicability of solar nowcasting: A practice on predictive PV power ramp-rate control," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 147-166.
  84. Zhang, Shu & Wang, Yi & Zhang, Yutian & Wang, Dan & Zhang, Ning, 2020. "Load probability density forecasting by transforming and combining quantile forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
  85. Munkhammar, Joakim & van der Meer, Dennis & Widén, Joakim, 2021. "Very short term load forecasting of residential electricity consumption using the Markov-chain mixture distribution (MCM) model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
  86. Che, Jinxing & Yuan, Fang & Deng, Dewen & Jiang, Zheyong, 2023. "Ultra-short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting with spatial-temporal multi-scale features and K-FSDW based weight," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
  87. Xiwen Cui & Shaojun E & Dongxiao Niu & Dongyu Wang & Mingyu Li, 2021. "An Improved Forecasting Method and Application of China’s Energy Consumption under the Carbon Peak Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-21, August.
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