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Forecasting Hourly Power Load Considering Time Division: A Hybrid Model Based on K-means Clustering and Probability Density Forecasting Techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Fuqiang Li

    (North China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing 100053, China)

  • Shiying Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Wenxuan Li

    (North China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing 100053, China)

  • Wei Zhao

    (North China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing 100053, China)

  • Bingkang Li

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Huiru Zhao

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

In comparison with traditional point forecasting method, probability density forecasting can reflect the load fluctuation more effectively and provides more information. This paper proposes a hybrid hourly power load forecasting model, which integrates K-means clustering algorithm, Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA), Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and kernel density estimation (KDE) method. Firstly, the loads at 24 times a day are grouped into three categories according to the K-means clustering algorithm, which correspond to the valley period, flat period, and peak period of the load, respectively. Secondly, the load point forecasting value is obtained by LSSVM method optimized by SSA algorithm. Furthermore, the kernel density estimation method is employed to fit the forecasting error of SSA-LSSVM in different time periods, and the probability density function of the error distribution is obtained. The final load probability density forecasting result is obtained by combining the point forecasting value and the error fitting result, and then the upper and lower limits of the confidence interval under the given confidence level are solved. In this paper, the performance of the model is evaluated by two indicators named interval coverage and interval average width. Meanwhile, in comparison with several other models, it can be concluded that the proposed model can effectively improve the forecasting effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuqiang Li & Shiying Zhang & Wenxuan Li & Wei Zhao & Bingkang Li & Huiru Zhao, 2019. "Forecasting Hourly Power Load Considering Time Division: A Hybrid Model Based on K-means Clustering and Probability Density Forecasting Techniques," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:24:p:6954-:d:294794
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mauro Bernardi & Francesco Lisi, 2020. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Zonal Electricity Prices and Demand Using Heteroscedastic Models: The IPEX Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-34, November.

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