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The dynamic impact of uncertainty in causing and forecasting the distribution of oil returns and risk

Citations

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  1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wang, Shixuan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and movements in the US government bond risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  2. Bos, Martijn & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Oil returns and volatility: The role of mergers and acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 62-69.
  3. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Infectious Diseases, Market Uncertainty and Oil Market Volatility," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-8, August.
  4. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2017. "On exchange-rate movements and gold-price fluctuations: evidence for gold-producing countries from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 691-700, October.
  5. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Liu, Ruipeng, 2025. "Supply chain constraints and the predictability of the conditional distribution of international stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
  6. Chang, Tsangyao & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2019. "Predicting stock market movements with a time-varying consumption-aggregate wealth ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 458-467.
  7. Mei, Dexiang & Zeng, Qing & Cao, Xiang & Diao, Xiaohua, 2019. "Uncertainty and oil volatility: New evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 155-163.
  8. Rangan Gupta & Damien Moodley, 2023. "Housing Search Activity and Quantiles-Based Predictability of Housing Price Movements in the United States," Working Papers 202335, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  9. Bahloul, Walid & Balcilar, Mehmet & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "The role of economic and financial uncertainties in predicting commodity futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 52-71.
  10. Shi, Chunpei & Wei, Yu & Li, Xiafei & Liu, Yuntong, 2023. "Combination forecasts of China's oil futures returns based on multiple uncertainties and their connectedness with oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  11. Onur Polat & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri & Mariem Brahim, 2026. "Climate risks and predictability of the conditional distributions of rare earth stock returns and volatility," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 50(1), pages 1-26, December.
  12. Yang, Kun & Wei, Yu & Li, Shouwei & Liu, Liang & Wang, Lei, 2021. "Global financial uncertainties and China’s crude oil futures market: Evidence from interday and intraday price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  13. Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Kabir Hassan, M. & Gider, Zeynullah & Tahsin Rafia, Humaira & Rashid, Mamunur, 2023. "Searching hedging instruments against diverse global risks and uncertainties," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  14. Riadh El Abed & Abderrazek Ben Hamouda, 2024. "Time Frequency and Co-movements between Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, Precious Metals and Agricultural Prices: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis and Bootstrap Rolling Window Granger Causality," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 546-561, March.
  15. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do cay and cayMS predict stock and housing returns? Evidence from a nonparametric causality test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 269-279.
  16. Zhuo, Xingxuan & Ye, Jianjiang & Liu, Han & Lin, Feng, 2025. "Analyzing dynamics of crude oil price amid sudden events and intervention measures: Insights from a Prophet-QR model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 401(PB).
  17. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Cakan, Esin, 2021. "Dynamic impact of the U.S. monetary policy on oil market returns and volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 159-169.
  18. Mehmet Balcilar & Matteo Bonato & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Effect of Investor Sentiment on Gold Market Dynamics," Working Papers 201638, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  19. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using news-based economic policy uncertainty: Not all uncertainty changes are equally important," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  20. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Effect of Rare Disaster Risks on Crude Oil: Evidence from El Nino from Over 140 Years of Data," Working Papers 2020104, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  21. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng & Li, Xinran, 2023. "How economic policy uncertainty affects asymmetric spillovers in food and oil prices: Evidence from wavelet analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
  22. Demirer, Riza & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua, 2024. "Gold, platinum and the predictability of bubbles in global stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  23. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pienaar, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2022. "Forecasting the realized variance of oil-price returns using machine learning: Is there a role for U.S. state-level uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  24. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Suleman, Tahir & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Time-varying rare disaster risks, oil returns and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 239-248.
  25. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Do U.S. economic conditions at the state level predict the realized volatility of oil-price returns? A quantile machine-learning approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
  26. Hossein Hassani & Mohammad Reza Yeganegi & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Historical Forecasting Of Interest Rate Mean And Volatility Of The United States: Is There A Role Of Uncertainty?," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(04), pages 1-17, December.
  27. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Eric Olson, 2020. "Effect of uncertainty on U.S. stock returns and volatility: evidence from over eighty years of high-frequency data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(16), pages 1305-1311, September.
  28. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Wendy Nyakabawo, 2018. "Predicting Aggregate and State-Level US House Price Volatility: The Role of Sentiment," Working Papers 201866, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  29. Mehmet Balcilar & Esin Cakan & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Does U.S. News Impact Asian Emerging Markets? Evidence from Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers 201631, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  30. Sheng Cheng & Wei Liu & Qisheng Jiang & Yan Cao, 2023. "Multi–Scale Risk Connectedness Between Economic Policy Uncertainty of China and Global Oil Prices in Time–Frequency Domains," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1593-1616, April.
  31. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Forecasting the Volatility of Crude Oil: The Role of Uncertainty and Spillovers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-15, July.
  32. Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Caporin, Massimiliano & Panzica, Roberto, 2019. "Estimation and model-based combination of causality networks among large US banks and insurance companies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-21.
  33. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yan, Xing-Xing, 2020. "The impact of US economic policy uncertainty on WTI crude oil returns in different time and frequency domains," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 750-768.
  34. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "The predictive power of oil price shocks on realized volatility of oil: A note," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  35. Yin, Libo & Wang, Yang, 2019. "Forecasting the oil prices: What is the role of skewness risk?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
  36. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting the return on the spot price of crude oil out-of-sample by conditioning on news-based uncertainty measures: Some new empirical results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  37. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Linking U.S. State-level housing market returns, and the consumption-(Dis)Aggregate wealth ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 779-810.
  38. Wen, Jun & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "The impact of extreme events on energy price risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  39. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Oil shocks and directional predictability of macroeconomic uncertainties of developed economies: Evidence from high‐frequency data†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 169-185, May.
  40. Caporin, Massimiliano & Caraiani, Petre & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan, 2025. "Predicting the conditional distribution of US stock market systemic Stress: The role of climate risks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
  41. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong & Kyei, Clement, 2019. "The role of economic policy uncertainties in predicting stock returns and their volatility for Hong Kong, Malaysia and South Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 150-163.
  42. Nonejad Nima, 2026. "Out-of-Sample Density Prediction of the End-of-Month Price of Crude Oil and the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-47.
  43. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The role of time‐varying rare disaster risks in predicting bond returns and volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 327-340, July.
  44. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2018. "Predicting Stock Returns And Volatility With Investor Sentiment Indices: A Reconsideration Using A Nonparametric Causality†In†Quantiles Test," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 74-87, January.
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