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Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Edward J. Lusk, 2019. "A Benchmarked Evaluation of a Selected CapitalCube Interval-Scaled Market Performance Variable," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(2), pages 1-1, May.
  2. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2021. "Directional news impact curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 94-107, January.
  3. Edward J. Lusk, 2019. "Time Series Forecasting in Stock Trading Markets: The Turning Point Curiosity," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 01-16, July.
  4. Hassan Heidari & Arash Refah-Kahriz & Nayyer Hashemi Berenjabadi, 2018. "Dynamic Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Return Volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange: Multivariate MS ARMA GARCH Approach," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 5(2), pages 223-250.
  5. Yi-Chieh Wen & Bin Li, 2020. "Lagged country returns and international stock return predictability during business cycle recession periods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(46), pages 5005-5019, October.
  6. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "The yield curve and the stock market: Mind the long run," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  7. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
  8. Nyberg, Henri & Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "International sign predictability of stock returns: The role of the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 323-338.
  9. Mendes, Fernando Henrique de Paula e Silva & Caldeira, João Frois & Moura, Guilherme Valle, 2018. "Evidence of Bull and Bear Markets in the Bovespa index: An application of Markovian regime-switching Models with Duration Dependence," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 38(1), May.
  10. Harri Pönkä, 2017. "Predicting the direction of US stock markets using industry returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1451-1480, June.
  11. Haase, Felix & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023. "Predictability of bull and bear markets: A new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 587-605.
  12. Linh Nguyen & Vilém Novák & Soheyla Mirshahi, 2020. "Trend‐cycle Estimation Using Fuzzy Transform and Its Application for Identifying Bull and Bear Phases in Markets," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 111-124, July.
  13. Damir Tokic & Dave Jackson, 2023. "When a correction turns into a bear market: What explains the depth of the stock market drawdown? A discretionary global macro approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 184-197, May.
  14. Dockner, Engelbert J. & Mayer, Manuel & Zechner, Josef, 2013. "Sovereign bond risk premiums," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/28, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  15. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
  16. Gambarelli, Luca & Marchi, Gianluca & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2023. "Hedging effectiveness of cryptocurrencies in the European stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  17. Lee, Wei-Ming & Wu, Shue-Jen, 2025. "Do oil price changes contain useful predictive information about the U.S. bear stock market?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  18. Edward J. Lusk, 2018. "Evaluation of the Predictive Validity of the CapitalCubeâ„¢ Market Navigation Platform," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(3), pages 1-39, August.
  19. Fangming Xu & Huainan Zhao & Liyi Zheng, 2022. "Investment momentum: A two‐dimensional behavioural strategy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1191-1207, January.
  20. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013. "Macro determinants of U.S. stock market risk premia in bull and bear markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-520, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  21. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Moysiadis, Theodoros, 2017. "Binary time series models driven by a latent process," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 117-130.
  22. Borjigin, Sumuya & Yang, Yating & Yang, Xiaoguang & Sun, Leilei, 2018. "Econometric testing on linear and nonlinear dynamic relation between stock prices and macroeconomy in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 493(C), pages 107-115.
  23. Yang Lu, 2020. "A simple parameter‐driven binary time series model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 187-199, March.
  24. Jonathan Iworiso & Spyridon Vrontos, 2020. "On the directional predictability of equity premium using machine learning techniques," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 449-469, April.
  25. Narayan, S. & Le, T.-H. & Sriananthakumar, S., 2018. "The influence of terrorism risk on stock market integration: Evidence from eight OECD countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 247-259.
  26. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Predicting severe simultaneous bear stock markets using macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 196-204.
  27. Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2021. "What drives dynamic connectedness of the U.S equity sectors during different business cycles?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  28. Gupta, Rangan & Risse, Marian & Volkman, David A. & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "The role of term spread and pattern changes in predicting stock returns and volatility of the United Kingdom: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test using over 250 years of data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 391-405.
  29. Moench, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2026. "Equity Premium Predictability over the Business Cycle," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 1216-1246, May.
  30. Markku Lanne & Henri Nyberg, 2015. "Nonlinear dynamic interrelationships between real activity and stock returns," CREATES Research Papers 2015-36, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  31. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Intertemporal risk–return relationships in bull and bear markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 308-325.
  32. Anna Bykhovskaya & Nour Meddahi, 2026. "Generalized Autoregressive Multivariate Models: From Binary to Poisson," Papers 2604.14394, arXiv.org.
  33. Pawel Dlotko & Wanling Qiu & Simon Rudkin, 2022. "Topological Data Analysis Ball Mapper for Finance," Papers 2206.03622, arXiv.org.
  34. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "The equity risk premium and the low frequency of the term spread," Research Discussion Papers 7/2018, Bank of Finland.
  35. Lohrmann, Christoph & Luukka, Pasi, 2019. "Classification of intraday S&P500 returns with a Random Forest," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 390-407.
  36. João Cruz & João Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "Structural Changes in the Duration of Bull Markets and Business Cycle Dynamics," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 333-352, September.
  37. Ibrahim M. Awad & Abdel-Rahman Al-Ewesat, 2017. "Volatility Persistence in Palestine Exchange Bulls and Bears: An Econometric Analysis of Time Series Data," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 9, pages 83-97, August.
  38. Julien Chevallier & Bangzhu Zhu & Lyuyuan Zhang, 2021. "Forecasting Inflection Points: Hybrid Methods with Multiscale Machine Learning Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 537-575, February.
  39. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2017. "Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-121.
  40. Tzu-Pu Chang & Yu-Cheng Chang & Po-Ching Chou, 2022. "The Trend is Your Friend: A Note on An Ensemble Learning Approach to Finding It," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 19-25.
  41. Ibrahim Filiz & Jan René Judek & Marco Lorenz & Markus Spiwoks, 2021. "Sticky Stock Market Analysts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-27, December.
  42. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Truquet, Lionel, 2019. "On categorical time series models with covariates," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(9), pages 3446-3462.
  43. Hanna, Alan J., 2018. "A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 93-110.
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