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Predictability of GCC stock returns: The role of geopolitical risk and crude oil returns

Citations

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  1. Nguyen, Trang Thi Thuy & Pham, Binh Thai & Sala, Hector, 2022. "Being an emerging economy: To what extent do geopolitical risks hamper technology and FDI inflows?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 728-746.
  2. Fatma Alahouel & Nadia Loukil, 2025. "An Islamic Inter‐Temporal Capital Asset Pricing Model: Evidence From GCC Indexes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 4095-4112, October.
  3. Ha, Le Thanh, 2025. "From wars to dynamic waves: Scrutinizing connectedness between geopolitical risk index, green and non-green crypto volatility by quantile spillovers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 679(C).
  4. Umar, Zaghum & Trabelsi, Nader & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Oil shocks and equity markets: The case of GCC and BRICS economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  5. Kazi Sohag & Rogneda Vasilyeva & Alina Urazbaeva & Valentin Voytenkov, 2022. "Stock Market Synchronization: The Role of Geopolitical Risk," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-15, April.
  6. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2023. "Tail risks and forecastability of stock returns of advanced economies: evidence from centuries of data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 466-481, March.
  7. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Lasisi, Lukman & Olaniran, Abeeb, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility in emerging markets: A GARCH – MIDAS approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  8. Wu, Yi & Wang, Xinyao, 2024. "The cross section of information transmission in news media and stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
  9. Saadaoui, Jamel & Smyth, Russell & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2025. "Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  10. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Naceur, Sami & Kanaan, Oussama & Rault, Christophe, 2021. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of oil prices on GCC stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  11. Zhang, Hongwei & Jin, Chen & Bouri, Elie & Gao, Wang & Xu, Yahua, 2023. "Realized higher-order moments spillovers between commodity and stock markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
  12. Lau, Chi Keung & Soliman, Alaa M. & Albasu, Joseph & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Dependence structures among geopolitical risks, energy prices, and carbon emissions prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  13. Mo, Bin & Nie, He & Zhao, Rongjie, 2024. "Dynamic nonlinear effects of geopolitical risks on commodities: Fresh evidence from quantile methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
  14. Su, Chi-Wei & Yang, Shengyao & Dumitrescu Peculea, Adelina & Ioana Biţoiu, Teodora & Qin, Meng, 2024. "Energy imports in turbulent eras: Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
  15. Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie & Abuzayed, Bana, 2023. "Decomposed oil price shocks and GCC stock market sector returns and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  16. Xia, Mingli & Zhu, Guangfeng, 2024. "The importance of intellectual property: Analyzing the impact of resource efficiency improvements in the mineral sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  17. Zhang, Jiaming & Xiang, Yitian & Zou, Yang & Guo, Songlin, 2024. "Volatility forecasting of Chinese energy market: Which uncertainty have better performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  18. Yang, Jianlei & Yang, Chunpeng, 2021. "The impact of mixed-frequency geopolitical risk on stock market returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 226-240.
  19. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Demir, Ender & Long, Huaigang, 2022. "When bad news is good news: Geopolitical risk and the cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  20. Wang, Yihan & Bouri, Elie & Fareed, Zeeshan & Dai, Yuhui, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and the systemic risk in the commodity markets under the war in Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  21. Ahmed H. Elsayed & Mohamad Husam Helmi, 2021. "Volatility transmission and spillover dynamics across financial markets: the role of geopolitical risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 305(1), pages 1-22, October.
  22. Bouri, Elie & Quinn, Barry & Sheenan, Lisa & Tang, Yayan, 2024. "Investigating extreme linkage topology in the aerospace and defence industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  23. Chi Keung Lau & Alaa M. Soliman & Dongna Zhang, 2024. "Energy Price Inflation, Geopolitical Risk, and Bitcoin Dependence Structure: Evidence from BRICS," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(12), pages 2631-2645, September.
  24. Yufeng Zhang & Tonghui Zhang & Jingyi Hu, 2025. "Forecasting Stock Market Volatility Using CNN-BiLSTM-Attention Model with Mixed-Frequency Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-26, June.
  25. Shahzad, Umer & Mohammed, Kamel Si & Tiwari, Sunil & Nakonieczny, Joanna & Nesterowicz, Renata, 2023. "Connectedness between geopolitical risk, financial instability indices and precious metals markets: Novel findings from Russia Ukraine conflict perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  26. Plastun, Alex & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Price effects after one-day abnormal returns in developed and emerging markets: ESG versus traditional indices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  27. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi & M. Kabir Hassan, 2021. "Geopolitical Uncertainties and Malaysian Stock Market Returns: Do Market Conditions Matter?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-16, September.
  28. Ren, Xiaohang & Cao, Yuxuan & Liu, Pei Jose & Han, Dun, 2023. "Does geopolitical risk affect firms' idiosyncratic volatility? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  29. Al-Maadid, Alanoud & Alhazbi, Saleh & Al-Thelaya, Khaled, 2022. "Using machine learning to analyze the impact of coronavirus pandemic news on the stock markets in GCC countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  30. Zhang, Jilu & Guxue, Kaicheng, 2024. "Fostering sustainability: Exploring natural resources, mineral resources, and their impact on carbon reduction, economic growth," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  31. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Tang, Huayun & Li, Ding, 2022. "The roles of oil shocks and geopolitical uncertainties on China’s green bond returns," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 494-505.
  32. Bouri, Elie & Lei, Xiaojie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Connectedness in implied higher-order moments of precious metals and energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
  33. Bashar Abu Khalaf & Munirah Sarhan Alqahtani & Maryam Saad Al-Naimi, 2025. "Climate Change Commitment and Stock Returns in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-21, May.
  34. Sweidan, Osama D. & Elbargathi, Khadiga, 2023. "Economic diversification in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the impact of oil prices, geopolitical risk, and government expenditures," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 13-24.
  35. Abdelaziz Eissa, Mohamed & Al Refai, Hisham, 2024. "Context-dependent responses to geopolitical risk in Middle Eastern and African stock markets: An asymmetric volatility spillover study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  36. Sarit Maitra & Vivek Mishra & Sukanya Kundu & Manav Chopra, 2023. "Econometric Model Using Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Quantile Regression to Estimate the Risk Factors Driving Crude Oil Returns," Papers 2309.13096, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  37. Saeed, Tareq & Bouri, Elie & Alsulami, Hamed, 2021. "Extreme return connectedness and its determinants between clean/green and dirty energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  38. Xie, Qichang & Luo, Chao & Cong, Xiaoping & Wang, Xu, 2024. "Volatility connectedness and its determinants of global energy stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(2).
  39. Salachas, Evangelos & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2024. "Stock market spillovers of global risks and hedging opportunities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  40. Xiafei Li & Chao Liang & Feng Ma, 2025. "Forecasting stock market volatility with a large number of predictors: New evidence from the MS-MIDAS-LASSO model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 352(3), pages 613-652, September.
  41. Bouri, Elie & Hammoud, Rami & Kassm, Christina Abou, 2023. "The effect of oil implied volatility and geopolitical risk on GCC stock sectors under various market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  42. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Good oil volatility, bad oil volatility, and stock return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 953-966.
  43. Oana Panazan & Catalin Gheorghe, 2024. "Impact of Geopolitical Risk on G7 Financial Markets: A Comparative Wavelet Analysis between 2014 and 2022," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-22, January.
  44. Jie Liu & Zhenshan Chen & Yinglun Zhu & Yangfa Chen & Yaoye Huang, 2024. "The time-varying effects of geopolitical risk on mutual fund risk taking," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(6), pages 1-21, June.
  45. Amirali Nasouri, 2025. "The Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Equity Markets and Financial Stress: A Comparative Analysis of Emerging and Advanced Economies," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 30-41.
  46. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali & Ana Ercília José, 2022. "Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
  47. Zhang, Yulian & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2022. "A connectedness analysis among BRICS’s geopolitical risks and the US macroeconomy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-203.
  48. Azimli, Asil & Kalmaz, Demet Beton, 2025. "The impact of Russia’s Geopolitical Risk on stock markets’ high-moment risk," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
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