IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewpbs/338261.html

Eine Agenda 2035

Author

Listed:
  • Ziebarth, Nicolas R.

Abstract

Aufgrund des demografischen Wandels und stark steigender Sozialversicherungsbeiträge skizziert dieser Policy Brief eine mögliche "Agenda 2035" zur nachhaltigen Finanzierung der deutschen Sozialversicherungssysteme. Ohne Reformen könnte der Gesamtsozialversicherungsbeitrag in den nächsten zehn Jahren auf über 50 Prozent steigen. Steigende Beiträge belasten Beschäftigte und Unternehmen, schwächen Investitionen und gefährden Wachstum und Beschäftigung. Um die bis noch vor kurzem politisch etablierte 40-Prozent-Grenze einzuhalten, wäre bis 2035 eine Konsolidierung von rund zehn Beitragspunkten durch entsprechende Strukturreformen erforderlich. Als Reformleitlinien werden der Abbau ineffizienter Leistungen, eine gezielte Reallokation von Mitteln und höhere Steuerzuschüsse genannt. In der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung können Effizienzreserven insbesondere durch gesundheitsnutzenbasierte Zuzahlungen und Boni, stärkere Prävention und eine bessere Patientensteuerung durch Zuzahlungen bei Facharztbesuchen ohne Hausarztüberweisung gehoben werden. Nutzenbasierte Zuzahlungen und Boni können die Patientennachfrage nach medizinischen Leistungen lenken und die Inanspruchnahme von Leistungen mit geringem Zusatznutzen senken. Zusätzlicher Finanzbedarf könnte über höhere Verbrauchssteuern auf gesundheitsschädliche Konsumgüter erzielt werden. In der Pflegeversicherung sind die zu hebenden Effizienzspielräume begrenzt. Produktivitätssteigerungen in einem lohnintensiven Sektor könnten aber durch den breiten Einsatz neuer Technologien generiert werden. In der Rentenversicherung wäre eine Rückkehr zu früheren Reformelementen sowie die Kopplung des Regelrentenalters an die Lebenserwartung sinnvoll. Insgesamt wird ein ausgewogener Maßnahmenmix gefordert, um Finanzierungssicherheit, Generationengerechtigkeit und gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz zu sichern. 30, Vertragsstaatenkonferenz der Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen (COP30), Belém, Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), Wälder, Waldfinanzierung, Waldrestaurierung, Rio-Konventionen, Klimaziele, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+)ANO, Motoristen, Motoristé sobée, SPD, Svoboda a pérímá demokracie, SPOLU, Bürgermeisterpartei, STAN, Patrioten für Europa, Slavk

Suggested Citation

  • Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2026. "Eine Agenda 2035," ZEW policy briefs 01/2026, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:338261
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/338261/1/1963852982.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    • Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2025. "Eine Agenda 2035," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 78(12), pages 22-26, December.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Axel Börsch-Supan & Tabea Bucher-Koenen & Johannes Rausch, 2016. "Szenarien für eine nachhaltige Finanzierung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(18), pages 31-40, September.
    2. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Bucher-Koenen, Tabea & Rausch, Johannes, 2016. "Szenarien für eine nachhaltige Finanzierung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung," MEA discussion paper series 201603, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    3. Cawley, John & Meyerhoefer, Chad, 2012. "The medical care costs of obesity: An instrumental variables approach," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 219-230.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fenge, Robert & Peglow, François, 2018. "Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 61-76.
    2. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Rausch, Johannes, 2018. "Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie," MEA discussion paper series 201803, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    3. Schön, Matthias, 2020. "Long-term outlook for the German statutory pension system," Discussion Papers 22/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Axel Börsch-Supan & Johannes Rausch, 2018. "Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(09), pages 23-30, May.
    5. Zhang, Yuxiang & Liu, Yizao, 2023. "Reducing Added Sugar Intake: The Impact of Updated Nutrition Facts Panel," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335813, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Md. Alauddin Majumder, 2013. "Does Obesity Matter for Wages? Evidence from the United States," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 200-217, June.
    7. Bemile, Esther & Anders, Sven M., 2014. "Linking Diet-Health Behaviour and Obesity using Propensity Score Matching," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182832, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Courtemanche, Charles & Tchernis, Rusty & Zhou, Xilin, 2017. "Parental Work Hours and Childhood Obesity: Evidence Using Instrumental Variables Related to Sibling School Eligibility," IZA Discussion Papers 10739, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. Bastian, Nathaniel D. & Swenson, Eric R. & Ma, Linlin & Na, Hyeong Suk & Griffin, Paul M., 2017. "Incentive contract design for food retailers to reduce food deserts in the US," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 87-98.
    10. Bansal, S. & Zilberman, D., 2018. "Role of health care expenditure in countering adverse effects of obesity on health: Evidence from global data," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275941, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Neuhofer, Zachary & McFadden, Brandon R. & Rihn, Alicia & Wei, Xuan & Khachatryan, Hayk & House, Lisa, 2020. "Can the updated nutrition facts label decrease sugar-sweetened beverage consumption?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    12. Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2016. "Does Leaving School in an Economic Downturn Persistently Affect Body Weight? Evidence from Panel Data," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 122-148, January.
    13. Julian M. Alston & Joanna P. MacEwan & Abigail M. Okrent, 2016. "Effects of U.S. Public Agricultural R&D on U.S. Obesity and its Social Costs," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 492-520.
    14. Cavaliere, Alessia & De Marchi, Elisa & Banterle, Alessandro, 2013. "Time Preference and Health: The Problem of Obesity," 2013 International European Forum, February 18-22, 2013, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 164754, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    15. Caliendo, Marco & Gehrsitz, Markus, 2016. "Obesity and the labor market: A fresh look at the weight penalty," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 209-225.
    16. Joachim Marti & Michael R. Richards, 2017. "Smoking Response to Health and Medical Spending Changes and the Role of Insurance," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 305-320, March.
    17. O'Connell, Martin & Smith, Kate, 2020. "Corrective Tax Design and Market Power," CEPR Discussion Papers 14582, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    18. Jan Häußler, 2014. "Effects of Obesity and Physical Activity on Health Care Utilization and Costs," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-07, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    19. repec:ags:remeag:163038 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Zasimova, Liudmila, 2022. "The association between fast-food consumption and job-related factors among Russian adults," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    21. Cremer, Helmuth & Goulão, Catarina & Roeder, Kerstin, 2016. "Earmarking and the political support of fat taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 258-267.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:338261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.