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What does ex-post evidence tell us about the output effects of future tax reforms?


  • Kneller, Richard Anthony
  • Misch, Florian


This paper reviews the existing evidence on the effects of tax reforms on output levels and growth over the short and long run from different strands of the literature. It develops and applies criteria to evaluate the usefulness of ex-post estimates to predict the effects of tax reforms ex-ante. These include whether the estimated policy change can be replicated in practice and whether the estimates are reliable. Based on these criteria we present detailed tables summarizing and comparing ex-post estimates of the effects of tax reforms. Overall, our review suggests that at least the direction of the long-run growth effects can be predicted with a reasonable degree of certainty. However, our review also suggests that depending on the tax change, trade-offs between short-run stabilization and long-run growth may arise and that more research on this question is needed.

Suggested Citation

  • Kneller, Richard Anthony & Misch, Florian, 2011. "What does ex-post evidence tell us about the output effects of future tax reforms?," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-029, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:11029

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. de Castro, Francisco & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2008. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1005-1028, September.
    2. Michael Bleaney & Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller, 2001. "Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 36-57, February.
    3. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Strauch, Rolf, 2008. "Public finances and long-term growth in Europe: Evidence from a panel data analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 172-191, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gemmell Norman & Au Joey, 2013. "Do Smaller Governments Raise the Level or Growth of Output? A Review of Recent Evidence," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 64(2), pages 85-116, August.
    2. Gemmell, Norman & Au, Joey, 2012. "Government Size, Fiscal Policy and the Level and Growth of Output: A Review of Recent Evidence," Working Paper Series 2603, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    3. Abdon, Arnelyn May & Estrada, Gemma Esther & Lee, Minsoo & Park, Donghyun, 2014. "Fiscal Policy and Growth in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 412, Asian Development Bank.
    4. Nadia Belhaj Hassine-Belghith, 2007. "Exporting , Productive Efficiency and Product Quality: An Empirical Analysis Of the Agricultural Sector in the Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 711, Economic Research Forum, revised 01 Jan 2007.

    More about this item


    Tax Reforms; Tax Policy; Aggregate Growth; Tax Multipliers; Fiscal Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General

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