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Investor panic, IMF actions, and emerging stock market returns and volatility: A panel investigation

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  • Hayo, Bernd
  • Kutan, Ali M.

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the reaction of stock market returns and volatility in a diverse group of six emerging markets to a set of IMF events. In particular, we test within a panel framework whether there was an “investor panic” causing a significant drop in stock market returns on the days of negative IMF events. We find that on average negative (positive) IMF news reduce (increase) daily stock returns by about one percentage point. The most influential single event is the delay of loans from the IMF, which reduces stock returns by about one and a half percentage points. IMF news do not have a significant impact on the volatility of stock markets. Thus, it appears that IMF actions and events primarily have an effect on pay-offs but not on risk, and do not appear to support the hypothesis of IMF induced “investor panics”.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Investor panic, IMF actions, and emerging stock market returns and volatility: A panel investigation," ZEI Working Papers B 27-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b272001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
    2. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    4. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Dong Lee & Bong-Chan Kho & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "U.S. Banks, Crises, and Bailouts: From Mexico to LTCM," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 28-31, May.
    7. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1999. "Creditor Panics: Causes and Remedies," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 377-390, Winter.
    8. Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 2000. "Banks, the IMF, and the Asian crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 177-216, May.
    9. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IMF news; stock market returns; emerging markets;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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