IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc19/203619.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Corporate Tax Reforms With Policy Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Brendler, Pavel
  • Abraham, Arpad
  • Carceles, Eva

Abstract

One important feature of tax reforms, in particular corporate tax reforms, is the uncertainty surrounding them. Are they going to be permanent or are they likely to be withdrawn by the subsequent government? The expected duration of the reform is important because it affects households' economic decisions, their expected welfare and ultimately their political support for the reform. We use a framework with heterogeneous agents who face uninsurable labor productivity shocks and a representative firm who pays capital adjustment costs. The model is calibrated to the U.S. in 2016. Our revenue-neutral reform eliminates corporate taxes on firm's profits at the cost of more progressive taxes on households' labor incomes. The duration of this reform is uncertain, since it can be repealed at given points in time in the future. Using this framework, we analyze the effect of uncertainty in reform duration on the political support for the reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Brendler, Pavel & Abraham, Arpad & Carceles, Eva, 2019. "Corporate Tax Reforms With Policy Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203619, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc19:203619
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/203619/1/VfS-2019-pid-28106.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Allan Drazen, 1997. "Uncertain Duration of Reform: Dynamic Implications," NBER Working Papers 5925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Anagnostopoulos, Alexis & Cárceles-Poveda, Eva & Lin, Danmo, 2012. "Dividend and capital gains taxation under incomplete markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 599-611.
    3. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2019. "The cost of uncertainty about the timing of Social Security reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 101-125.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arpad Abraham & Pavel Brendler & Eva Carceles, 2021. "Capital Tax Reforms With Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers 21-01, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    2. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193.
    3. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2016. "How Uncertain Are Economic Policies? Evidence from a survey on Japanese firms," Policy Discussion Papers 16008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Daphne Chen & Shi Qi & Don Schlagenhauf, 2018. "Corporate Income Tax, Legal Form of Organization, and Employment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 270-304, October.
    5. Francisco Venegas-Martinez, 2006. "Impacto de una Politica Fiscal incierta y del riesgo cambiario en estrategias de estabilizacion de precios," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 2(2), pages 3-33, Enero-Jun.
    6. Sagiri Kitao, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty and Cost of Delaying Reform: The Case of Aging Japan," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 81-100, January.
    7. Zeida, Teegawende H., 2019. "On the corporate tax reform: Coordination and trade-offs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Conesa, Juan Carlos & Li, Bo & Li, Qian, 2020. "Welfare implications of switching to consumption taxation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. Erin Cottle Hunt & Frank N. Caliendo, 2020. "Social Security reform: three Rawlsian options," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1582-1607, December.
    10. Jer-Shiou Chiou & Pei-Shan Wu & Ming-Chih Lee, 2006. "Variation of interest-rate parity and its asymmetry on stock return in a jump-diffusion process," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1309-1316.
    11. Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "¿Por qué deben las economías emergentes renunciar a su moneda nacional? El argumento a favor," Research Department Publications 4310, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    13. Cristina Arellano & Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," Research Department Publications 4307, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    14. Caliendo, Frank N. & Guo, Nick L. & Smith, Jason M., 2018. "Policy uncertainty and bank bailouts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 111-125.
    15. Bodart, Vincent & Carpantier, Jean-François, 2016. "Real exchange rates and skills," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 305-319.
    16. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2006. "Stochastic temporary stabilization: Undiversifiable devaluation and income risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 157-173, January.
    17. Martin Uribe, 1996. "The Tequila effect: theory and evidence from Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 552, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Ms. Xiangming Li, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Real Exchange Rate Movement," IMF Working Papers 2003/124, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk, 2006. "The Role of Distribution of the Income Shares of Individuals in Tradables and Nontradables on Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Delay of Stabilizations," MPRA Paper 5485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Conesa, Juan C. & Domínguez, Begoña, 2013. "Intangible investment and Ramsey capital taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 983-995.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incomplete markets; Heterogeneous agents; Policy uncertainty; Tax reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc19:203619. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.