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Economics in Action – die Erstellung von Wirtschaftsprognosen in der (Corona-)Krise

Author

Listed:
  • Emme, Verena
  • Henze, Justus
  • Reichmann, Werner
  • Weinig, Max

Abstract

Das Papier geht der Frage nach, wie sich die Herstellung von Wirtschaftsprognosen im Kontext der radikalen Ungewissheit während der Corona-Pandemie verändert. Etablierte soziologische Forschungsarbeiten zu Wirtschaftsprognosen haben gezeigt, dass soziale Interaktionsprozesse zwischen den Akteur*innen der Prognostik innerhalb eines Netzwerks konstitutiv für die Herstellung von Prognosewissen sind. Dieses Papier aktualisiert und erweitert diese Erkenntnisse für die besonderen Bedingungen während der Corona-Pandemie. Mittels einer sozialen Netzwerkanalyse und der Auswertung von qualitativen Interviews mit führenden Prognostiker*innen im deutschsprachigen Raum wird gezeigt, dass die Bedeutung von sozialen Interaktionsprozessen innerhalb eines erweiterten Netzwerks zwischen Akteur*innen der Wirtschaftsforschung und -politik während der Corona-Pandemie stark zunimmt. Epistemische Interaktionen stellen sicher, dass in dieser weitreichenden gesellschaftlichen Krisensituation überhaupt plausible und glaubhafte Prognosen über die ökonomische Zukunft produziert werden können.

Suggested Citation

  • Emme, Verena & Henze, Justus & Reichmann, Werner & Weinig, Max, 2021. "Economics in Action – die Erstellung von Wirtschaftsprognosen in der (Corona-)Krise," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 63, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:uhhwps:63
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Döpke Jörg & Fritsche Ulrich & Waldhof Gabi, 2019. "Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts : Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(2), pages 203-241, April.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "Die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(08), pages 40-42, April.
    3. Negro, Marco Del & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 57-140, Elsevier.
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