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Ambiguity and the incentive to export

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  • Broll, Udo
  • Wong, Kit Pong

Abstract

This paper examines the optimal production and export decisions of an international firm facing exchange rate uncertainty when the firm's preferences exhibit smooth ambiguity aversion. Ambiguity is modeled by a second-order probability distribution that captures the firm's uncertainty about which of the subjective beliefs govern the exchange rate risk. Ambiguity preferences are modeled by the (second-order) expectation of a concave transformation of the ( first-order) expected utility of profit conditional on each plausible subjective distribution of the exchange rate risk. Within this framework, we show that ambiguity has no impact on the firm's propensity to export to a foreign country. Ambiguity and ambiguity aversion, however, are shown to have adverse effect on the firm's incentive to export to the foreign country.

Suggested Citation

  • Broll, Udo & Wong, Kit Pong, 2014. "Ambiguity and the incentive to export," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 01/14, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity; Ambiguity aversion; Exports; Production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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