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Administrative failure, state capacity, and democratic exclusion: Evidence from Berlin's 2021 election breakdown

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  • Kröper, Marius

Abstract

This paper studies the long-run effects of non-strategic administrative failures on voter participation. I exploit a natural experiment from Berlin's 2021 elections, in which hundreds of precincts experienced ballot shortages, multi-hour queues, and unlawful polling closures. Using precinct-level administrative data and a stacked event study design, I show that precincts exposed to administrative failures in the 2021 Berlin election experienced a 1.8 percentage points (2.4\%) decline in turnout across three subsequent elections over the next four years. The drop is concentrated in in-person voting and only partially offset by increases in postal participation in subsequent elections. Effects are largest among young voters, welfare recipients, and residents with migration backgrounds. Survey evidence suggests two mechanisms: disrupted civic habit formation and short-term erosion of institutional trust.

Suggested Citation

  • Kröper, Marius, 2025. "Administrative failure, state capacity, and democratic exclusion: Evidence from Berlin's 2021 election breakdown," CEPIE Working Papers 03/25, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tudcep:333402
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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • R50 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - General

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