IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/iwkpps/132020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investitionen und Konsum: Überlegungen zu wirtschaftspolitischen Handlungsoptionen zur Jahresmitte 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Hüther, Michael

Abstract

Die konjunkturelle Entwicklung dieses Jahres ist von dem Einbruch der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Leistung ab dem März geprägt. Nach der ersten Schätzung des Statistischen Bundesamtes ist das BIP im ersten Vierteljahr um 2,2, Prozent gegenüber dem Vorquartal geschrumpft, während für das zweite Quartal mit etwa 12 Prozent in laufender Rate eine deutlich stärkere Schrumpfung zu erwarten ist. Allgemein hat sich aber das Bild vermittelt, dass im zweiten Quartal (genauer in dessen erstem Drittel) der Tiefpunkt erreicht sein sollte, so dass ab der Jahresmitte wieder mit positiven laufenden Raten zu rechnen ist. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2020 wäre dann mit einer Schrumpfung des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts von fast 9 Prozent zu rechnen. Die dabei für das zweite Halbjahr unterstellte Erholung ist freilich voraussetzungsstark: Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass wesentliche Blockaden auf der Angebotsseite weitgehend gelockert oder nicht mehr wirksam sind und dass die Nachfrageseite wieder anläuft. Es wird auch davon ausgegangen, dass keine zweite Infektionswelle zu einem Second Lockdown führt.

Suggested Citation

  • Hüther, Michael, 2020. "Investitionen und Konsum: Überlegungen zu wirtschaftspolitischen Handlungsoptionen zur Jahresmitte 2020," IW policy papers 13/2020, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:132020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/219032/1/1700221418.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kolev, Galina V. & Obst, Thomas, 2020. "Die Abhängigkeit der deutschen Wirtschaft von internationalen Lieferketten," IW-Reports 16/2020, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    2. Christian Bayer & Benjamin Born & Ralph Luetticke & Gernot J Müller, 2023. "The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How Large is the Transfer Multiplier," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(652), pages 1318-1347.
    3. Youssef Benzarti & Dorian Carloni & Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Kosonen, 2020. "What Goes Up May Not Come Down: Asymmetric Incidence of Value-Added Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(12), pages 4438-4474.
    4. Fries, Jan Ludwig & Garnadt, Niklas & Herold, Jens & Kirsch, Florian & Lembcke, Franziska K. & Molitor, Pia & Nöh, Lukas & Preuß, Malte & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich & Rutkowski, Felix & Schwarz, Milena & W, 2020. "Nachfrage- und angebotsseitige Einschränkungen der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in Deutschland infolge der Corona-Pandemie," Working Papers 02/2020, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    5. Sebastian Dullien & Michael Hüther & Tom Krebs & Barbara Praetorius & C. Katharina Spieß, 2020. "Weiter Denken: ein nachhaltiges Investitionsprogramm als tragende Säule einer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stabilisierungspolitik," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 127, number pbk151, Enero-Abr.
    6. Reinald Koch & Dominika Langenmayr, 2020. "Der steuerliche Umgang mit Verlusten: Reformoptionen für die Corona-Krise [The Tax Treatment of Losses: Options for Reforms During the Corona Crisis]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(5), pages 367-373, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Hüther, 2020. "Investitionen und Konsum: wirtschaftspolitische Handlungsoptionen zur Jahresmitte 2020 [Investment and Consumption: Economic Policy Options in Mid-2020]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(6), pages 422-428, June.
    2. Michael Funke & Raphael Terasa, 2020. "Will Germany's Temporary VAT Tax Rates Cut as Part of the Covid-19 Fiscal Stimulus Package Boost Consumption and Growth?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8765, CESifo.
    3. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Emmanuel Saez & Benjamin Schoefer & David Seim, 2019. "Payroll Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Rent Sharing: Evidence from a Young Workers' Tax Cut in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1717-1763, May.
    5. Langenmayr Dominika & Mittermaier Ferdinand, 2021. "Nachhaltiges Wirtschaften, nachhaltig finanziert: Herausforderungen für die Politik in den 2020er Jahren," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 176-190, September.
    6. Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2022. "Covid-19 Shock and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Mix in a Monetary Union," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Luigi Paganetto (ed.), Economic Challenges for Europe After the Pandemic, pages 233-266, Springer.
    7. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    8. Bachas, Pierre & Gadenne, Lucie & Jensen, Anders, 2020. "Informality, Consumption Taxes and Redistribution," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1277, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. Philipp Pfeiffer & Werner Roeger & Jan in ’t Veld, 2020. "The COVID19-Pandemic in the EU: Macroeconomic Transmission and Economic Policy Response," European Economy - Discussion Papers 127, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Kudlyak, Marianna & Faia, Ester & Shabalina, Ekaterina, 2021. "Dynamic Labor Reallocation with Heterogeneous Skills and Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 16008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Guettabi, Mouhcine & Witman, Allison, 2023. "Universal cash transfers and prescription utilization: Evidence from the Alaska permanent fund dividend," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Harju, Jarkko & Kosonen, Tuomas & Skans, Oskar Nordström, 2018. "Firm types, price-setting strategies, and consumption-tax incidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 48-72.
    13. Gamber, William & Graham, James & Yadav, Anirudh, 2023. "Stuck at home: Housing demand during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    14. Pongpitch Amatyakul & Panchanok Jumrustanasan & Pornchanok Tapkham, 2023. "What can 20 billion financial transactions tell us about the impacts of Covid-19 fiscal transfers?," BIS Working Papers 1130, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Benzarti, Youssef & Harju, Jarkko, 2021. "Can payroll tax cuts help firms during recessions?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    16. Josef Baumgartner & Gabriel Felbermayr & Claudia Kettner & Angela Köppl & Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig & Simon Loretz & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Stark steigende Energiepreise – Optionen für eine Entlastung von Haushalten und Unternehmen," WIFO Research Briefs 6, WIFO.
    17. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Matthew N. White, 2021. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 107-141, March.
    18. Thiemo Fetzer, 2022. "Subsidising the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’S Eat-Out-to-Help-Out Scheme," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 1200-1217.
    19. Lilith Burgstaller & Annabelle Doerr & Sarah Necker, 2023. "Do Household Tax Credits Increase the Demand for Legally Provided Services?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10211, CESifo.
    20. Nora Lustig & Jon Jellema & Valentina Martinez Pabon, 2023. "Are Budget Neutral Income Floors Fiscally Viable in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 202-227.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:132020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkolde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.