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Do online real estate listing prices gauge transaction prices (well)? Evidence from novel near-real-time data

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  • Koetter, Michael
  • Noth, Felix
  • Wöbbeking, Carl Fabian

Abstract

We show that online listing prices closely approximate transaction prices across Europe. Our validation uses the IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI), a near-real-time database of monthly purchase prices, rents, listing counts, and time on market for 1,154 NUTS-3 regions in 16 countries since April 2024. With publication lags as short as one month, validated listing prices offer a timely, comparable complement to official house price statistics. Purchase price levels correlate between 0.94 and 0.97 with transaction prices in the five most populous markets, while calibration slopes range from 0.95 to 1.00. Asking prices exceed transaction prices by 13% to 22%.

Suggested Citation

  • Koetter, Michael & Noth, Felix & Wöbbeking, Carl Fabian, 2026. "Do online real estate listing prices gauge transaction prices (well)? Evidence from novel near-real-time data," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2026, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:343544
    DOI: 10.18717/dp09-fw05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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