IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/2146.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The EU self-surplus puzzle: An indication of VAT fraud?

Author

Listed:
  • Braml, Martin
  • Felbermayr, Gabriel

Abstract

The world runs a trade surplus with itself: Exporters report larger values of exports than what importers report as imports. This is a logically impossible but well known empirical fact. Less well known, in recent years, more than 80 percent of the global surplus is a trade surplus that the EU has with itself. In this paper, we show that this self-surplus of the EU amounts to a striking 307 billion Euro in 2018. It persists in goods, services, and secondary income accounts. It also exists within the Euro Area, and is strongest between neighboring countries. Around the 2004 Eastern Enlargement the EU's self-surplus quadrupled. Balance of payments data from the United Kingdom appear highly distorted. We argue that the phenomenon is not only due to measurement error. Rather, a large fraction of the EU's self-surplus puzzle seems related to fraud in value added tax. The loss in tax income could amount to as much as 64 billion Euro per year.

Suggested Citation

  • Braml, Martin & Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2019. "The EU self-surplus puzzle: An indication of VAT fraud?," Kiel Working Papers 2146, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/211487/1/1687458340.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raymond Fisman & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "The Smuggling of Art, and the Art of Smuggling: Uncovering the Illicit Trade in Cultural Property and Antiques," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 82-96, July.
    2. Gros, Daniel, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Symptom or cause of the crisis?," CEPS Papers 6865, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    3. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Robert C. Feenstra, 1999. "Discrepancies in International Data: An Application to China-Hong Kong Entrepot Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 338-343, May.
    5. Peter Morrow & Michael Smart & Artur Swistak, 2019. "VAT Compliance, Trade, and Institutions," CESifo Working Paper Series 7780, CESifo.
    6. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2015. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 47-93.
    7. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Liu, Xuepeng & Wang, Zhi, 2012. "Evasion behaviors of exporters and importers: Evidence from the U.S.–China trade data discrepancy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 141-157.
    8. Ariaster B. Chimeli & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2017. "The Use of Violence in Illegal Markets: Evidence from Mahogany Trade in the Brazilian Amazon," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 30-57, October.
    9. Martin T Braml & Gabriel J Felbermayr, 2019. "What Do We Really Know about the Transatlantic Current Account?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 65(3), pages 255-274.
    10. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Inga Heiland, 2018. "Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model," ifo Working Paper Series 250, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Paul Krugman, 2010. "The Theory Of Interstellar Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 1119-1123, October.
    12. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2013. "The German Model and the European Crisis," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1023-1039, November.
    13. Silvia Fedeli & Francesco Forte, 2009. "Models of Cross-Border VAT Fraud," Working Papers in Public Economics 123, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    14. Fabrizio Borselli & Silvia Fedeli & Luisa Giuriato, 2015. "Digital VAT Carousel Fraud: A New Boundary for Criminality," Working Papers in Public Economics 170, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Braml, Martin & Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2021. "Die USA sind mit großem Abstand Europas wichtigster Wirtschaftspartner," Kiel Policy Brief 150, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Thiess Buettner & Annalisa Tassi, 2023. "VAT fraud and reverse charge: empirical evidence from VAT return data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 849-878, June.
    3. Christian Grimme, 2020. "Zu den globalen Leistungsbilanzsalden im Jahr 2019," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(02), pages 49-53, February.
    4. Mr. Shafik Hebous & Mr. Alexander D Klemm & Yuou Wu, 2021. "How Does Profit Shifting Affect the Balance of Payments?," IMF Working Papers 2021/041, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin T Braml & Gabriel J Felbermayr, 2019. "What Do We Really Know about the Transatlantic Current Account?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 65(3), pages 255-274.
    2. Mohammad Farhad & Michael Jetter & Abu Siddique & Andrew Williams, 2018. "Misreported Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 7150, CESifo.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Renliang Liu & Thanasis Stengos, 2023. "What Drives Illicit Financial Flows? An Empirical Study of Trade Data Discrepancies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 371-409, April.
    5. Federico Maria Ferrara & Jörg S Haas & Andrew Peterson & Thomas Sattler, 2022. "Exports vs. Investment: How Public Discourse Shapes Support for External Imbalances," Post-Print hal-02569351, HAL.
    6. Nitsch, Volker, 2016. "Trillion Dollar Estimate: Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 80589, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    7. Ariaster B. Chimeli & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2017. "The Use of Violence in Illegal Markets: Evidence from Mahogany Trade in the Brazilian Amazon," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 30-57, October.
    8. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Liu, Renliang & Sheng, Liugang & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Faking trade for capital control evasion: Evidence from dual exchange rate arbitrage in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Iwona Markowicz & Pawel Baran, 2021. "Mirror data asymmetry in international trade by commodity group:the case of intra-Community trade," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(4), pages 889-905, December.
    11. Lin, Shu & Xiao, Jinchuan & Ye, Haichun, 2020. "Disguised carry trade and the transmission of global liquidity shocks: Evidence from China’s goods trade data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    12. Shaar, Karam, 2019. "Essays on modern economic issues in international trade, exchange rates and housing," Working Paper Series 8039, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Zeilbeck, Severin, 2015. "An investment initiative for fiscally constrained EU member states: The role of synergetic financial instruments," IPE Working Papers 58/2015, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    14. repec:vuw:vuwecf:16724 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Julien Gourdon & Laura Hering & Stéphanie Monjon & Sandra Poncet, 2022. "Estimating the repercussions from China's export value‐added tax rebate policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 243-277, January.
    16. Xinzheng Shi & Zhufeng Xu, 2023. "Export tax refund and the misreporting by Chinese exporters," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1469-1489, November.
    17. Dujava, Daniel & Siranova, Maria, 2022. "Is it me or you? A deeper insight into profile of misreporting economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 10-25.
    18. Stefan Hohberger & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2020. "The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplus," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 85-103, March.
    19. Cyril Chalendard, 2015. "Use of internal information, external information acquisition and customs underreporting," Working Papers halshs-01179445, HAL.
    20. Felbermayr Gabriel & Steininger Marina, 2019. "Revisiting the Euro’s Trade Cost and Welfare Effects," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 917-956, October.
    21. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "Independent Monetary Policy Versus a Common Currency: A Macroeconomic Analysis for the Czech Republic Through the Lens of an Applied DSGE Model," Working Papers 2018/19, Czech National Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; VAT Fraud; Statistical Discrepancies; Current Accounts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.