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Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2020. Rückprall nach dem Absturz - aber Pandemie lastet auf Erholung
[German Economy Autumn 2020 - Quick rebound, but Pandemic weighs on full recovery]

Author

Listed:
  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Mösle, Saskia

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist auf Erholungskurs. Die Wirtschaftsleistung hat sich mit der erfolgreichen Eindämmung der Corona-Pandemie von ihrem Tiefpunkt im April rasch wieder gelöst und einen Gutteil der Verluste innerhalb weniger Monate wettgemacht. Diese hohe Dynamik spiegelt im Wesentlichen die Normalisierung des Wirtschaftsgeschehens nach dem Lockdown wider. Die weitere Erholung dürfte mühsamer werden und an Tempo einbüßen. So sind nach wie vor einige Branchen spürbar durch die Corona-Pandemie belastet, ohne dass rasche Besserung in Sicht ist. Auch das Auslandsgeschäft dürfte noch einige Zeit leiden, zumal die Pandemie zuletzt vielerorts wieder aufzuflammen droht und wichtige Absatzregionen recht stark betroffen sind. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden sich die Unternehmen mit Investitionen vorerst zurückhalten, auch weil nach wie vor Unsicherheit über den weiteren Verlauf der Pandemie herrscht. Die privaten Konsumausgaben dürften sich dagegen schneller wieder erholen, da die privaten Haushalte ihre während des Lockdowns auf Rekordhöhe angeschwollene Sparquote normalisieren werden und die Arbeitseinkommen wieder kräftig steigen. Für das laufende Jahr rechnen wir mit einem Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 5,5 Prozent. Die Aufwärtsrevision um 1,3 Prozentpunkte gegenüber unserer Sommerprognose geht vor allem darauf zurück, dass der Rückprall früher einsetzte als erwartet. Dementsprechend haben wir unsere Prognose für die Zuwachsrate des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für das kommende Jahr auf 4,8 Prozent reduziert (Sommerprognose: 6,3 Prozent). Nach einem weiteren Anstieg in Höhe von 2,4 Prozent werden die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kapazitäten im Jahr 2022 im Großen und Ganzen wohl wieder normal ausgelastet sein. Der staatliche Budgetsaldo wird im laufenden Jahr deutlich ins Minus rutschen und bei rund 5 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt liegen. Im Zuge dessen werden die Staatsschulden von knapp 60 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt auf voraussichtlich über 70 Prozent im laufenden Jahr steigen. Trotz der wirtschaftlichen Erholung werden die öffentlichen Haushalte während des gesamten Prognosezeitraums mit einem Defizit abschließen.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia, 2020. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2020. Rückprall nach dem Absturz - aber Pandemie lastet auf Erholung [German Economy Autumn 2020 - Quick rebound, but Pandemic weighs on full recovery]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 71, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:71
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Weltwirtschaft und deutsche Konjunktur: Interimsprognose im Frühjahr 2020," Kiel Policy Briefs Spezial Corona-Update 3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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