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Five traps for German economic policy

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  • Siebert, Horst

Abstract

Die Konjunktur in Deutschland befindet sich am Beginn einer Schwächephase. Es ist keineswegs ausgeschlossen, dass die Wirtschaft in eine Rezession gerät, für die Prognose ist allerdings unterstellt, dass eine solche Verschärfung nicht eintritt. Wir halten es dennoch für wahrscheinlich, dass die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion vorübergehend leicht sinkt. Maßgeblich hierfür wird vor dem Hintergrund der Konjunkturschwäche bei den Handelspartnern der Außenhandel sein. Daneben werden die Unternehmensinvestitionen deutlich langsamer steigen als zuvor. Der private Konsum dürfte indes stützend wirken. Alles in allem ergibt sich aufgrund der starken Entwicklung zu Beginn des Jahres immer noch ein Anstieg des preisbereinigten Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 2,8 Prozent. Im Verlauf des nächsten Jahres dürfte die Konjunktur allmählich wieder Tritt fassen, im Jahresdurchschnitt beträgt der Zuwachs jedoch nur 0,8 Prozent. Der Arbeitsmarkt wird trotz der konjunkturellen Schwächephase weiterhin robust bleiben, so dass die Beschäftigung bis ins kommende Jahr hinein steigen dürfte.

Suggested Citation

  • Siebert, Horst, 1992. "Five traps for German economic policy," Kiel Discussion Papers 185, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkdp:185
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    1. Wyplosz, Charles, 1991. "A Note on the Real Exchange Rate Effect of German Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 527, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen & Helga Hessenius, 1991. "East Germany in from the Cold: The Economic Aftermath of Currency Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 1-106.
    3. Ngo Long & Horst Siebert, 1992. "A model of the socialist firm in transition to a market economy," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Maurer, Rainer & Sander, Birgit & Schmidt, Klaus-Dieter, 1991. "Privatisierung in Ostdeutschland: zur Arbeit der Treuhandanstalt," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1487, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Collier, Irwin L, Jr & Siebert, Horst, 1991. "The Economic Integration of Post-Wall Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 196-201, May.
    6. Boss, Alfred & Fischer, Malte & Langfeldt, Enno & Nitschke, Eckhard & Schatz, Klaus-Werner & Trapp, Peter, 1992. "Bundesrepublik Deutschland: Stagnation im Westen - Produktionsanstieg im Osten," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1515, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Boss, Alfred, 1991. "Mittelfristige Perspektiven der Finanzpolitik," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1506, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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    1. Ngo Long & Horst Siebert, 1992. "A model of the socialist firm in transition to a market economy," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-21, February.

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