The 'Pre-Eminence of Theory' versus the 'General-to-Specific' Cointegrated VAR Perspectives in Macro-Econometric Modeling
The primary aim of the paper is to place current methodological discussions on empirical modeling contrasting the 'theory first' versus the 'data first' perspectives in the context of a broader methodological framework with a view to constructively appraise them. In particular, the paper focuses on Colander?s argument in his paper ?Economists, Incentives, Judgement and Empirical Work? relating to the two different perspectives in Europe and the US that are currently dominating empirical macro-econometric modeling and delves deeper into their methodological/philosophical foundations. It is argued that the key to establishing a constructive dialogue between them is provided by a better understanding of the role of data in modern statistical inference, and how that relates to the centuries old issue of the realisticness of economic theories.
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130, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1991. " The Econometrics of the General Equilibrium Approach to Business Cycles," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(2), pages 161-78.
- Colander, David C., 2008.
"Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and Empirical Work,"
Economics Discussion Papers
2008-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Dave Colander, 2008. "Economists, Incentives, Judgement and Empirical Work," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0806, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
- Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, March.
- Spanos, Aris, 1995. "On theory testing in econometrics : Modeling with nonexperimental data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 189-226, May.
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