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Cobweb theorems with production lags and price forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Dufresne, Daniel
  • Vázquez-Abad, Felisa

Abstract

The classical cobweb theorem is extended to include production lags and price forecasts. Price forecasting based on a longer period has a stabilizing effect on prices. Longer production lags do not necessarily lead to unstable prices; very long lags lead to cycles of constant amplitude. The classical cobweb requires elasticity of demand to be greater than that of supply; this is not necessarily the case in a more general setting, price forecasting has a stabilizing effect. Random shocks are also considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Dufresne, Daniel & Vázquez-Abad, Felisa, 2012. "Cobweb theorems with production lags and price forecasting," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201217
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiarella, Carl, 1988. "The cobweb model: Its instability and the onset of chaos," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 377-384, October.
    2. Karla Atkins & Achla Marathe & Chris Barrett, 2007. "A computational approach to modeling commodity markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 125-142, September.
    3. Serena Ng & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 149-171, October.
    4. Bougerol, Philippe & Picard, Nico, 1992. "Stationarity of Garch processes and of some nonnegative time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 115-127.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cobweb theorem; production lags; stable markets; price fluctuations;

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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