A fiscal outlook for Poland: Update 2014. Background paper prepared for the World Bank's Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for Poland
Poland faces one of the most rapidly ageing population in Europe. The old age dependency ratio is expected to triple until 2060. Against this background, our paper examines the sustainability of Polish public finances and its isolated subsystems. We consider the profound recent reforms including the transfer of 2nd pillar pension obligations to the general government in 2014. Furthermore, we extend our previous computations (Jablonowski et al., 2011) by using data from household budget surveys as well as large pension contributors' and tax payers' databases. Our results show that the pension reforms enacted since 2011 improve the long-term stability of public finances. A risk for fiscal sustainability represents, however, the public health care system which may be severely challenged by the ageing process and a continuing excess cost growth. We assess a number of health reforms including co-payments and a shift to tax financing which have the potential to stabilize the public health care system.
|Date of creation:||2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: +49 +761 / 203 2301|
Phone: +49 +761 / 203 2301
Fax: +49 +761 / 203 2303
Web page: http://www.generationenvertraege.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jochen Hartwig, 2006.
"What Drives Health Care Expenditure? Baumol’s Model of ‘Unbalanced Growth’ Revisited,"
KOF Working papers
06-133, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Hartwig, Jochen, 2008. "What drives health care expenditure?--Baumol's model of 'unbalanced growth' revisited," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 603-623, May.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991.
"Generational accounts: a meaningful alternative to deficit accounting,"
9103, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts - A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Working Papers 3589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992.
" Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 303-318.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational accounting: a new approach for understanding the effects of fiscal policy on saving," Working Paper 9107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
- David M. Cutler & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1999.
"The Anatomy of Health Insurance,"
NBER Working Papers
7176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kamil Dybczak & Bartosz Przywara, 2010. "The role of technology in health care expenditure in the EU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 400, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Isabelle Joumard & Christophe André & Chantal Nicq, 2010. "Health Care Systems: Efficiency and Institutions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 769, OECD Publishing.
- Andreas Werblow & Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(10), pages 1109-1126.
- Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
- Sintonen, Harri & Linnosmaa, Ismo, 2000. "Economics of dental services," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1251-1296 Elsevier.
- Stanis³awa Golinowska, 2010. "The system of Long-Term Care in Poland," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 416, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.