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Arbeitsmarkt Pflege: Bestimmung der künftigen Altenpflegekräfte unter Berücksichtigung der Berufsverweildauer

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  • Hackmann, Tobias
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    Die Zahl der professionell zu versorgenden Pflegefälle wird sich bis zum Jahr 2050 voraussichtlich um etwa 270 Prozent erhöhen. Diesem Anstieg der Pflegebedürftigen steht ein zu erwartender Rückgang der Erwerbspersonen um etwa 40 Prozent gegenüber. Unter Zugrundelegung eines Zeitreihenmodells werden die für die Zahl der Altenpflegekräfte relevanten Angebots-und Nachfragefaktoren ermittelt. Die Ergebnisse des Zeitreihenansatzes machen jedoch deutlich, dass sich die Anzahl der professionellen Altenpflegekräfte - unter Berücksichtigung aller zu erwartenden Veränderungen - nur um etwa 30 Prozent bis zum Jahr 2050 steigern lässt. Um Versorgungsengpässe im Pflegebereich dennoch abzuwenden, gilt es, mit Hilfe gezielter Maßnahmen die Zahl der professionellen Altenpflegekräfte weiter zu erhöhen. Vor diesem Hintergrund zeigt der vorliegende Beitrag auf, in welchem Ausmaß sich die Zahl der Altenpflegekräfte durch eine Steigerung der durchschnittlichen Berufsverweildauer erhöhen lässt.

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    Paper provided by University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG) in its series FZG Discussion Papers with number 40.

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    Date of creation: 2009
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:40
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    1. Hackmann, Tobias & Moog, Stefan, 2008. "Pflege im Spannungsfeld von Angebot und Nachfrage," FZG Discussion Papers 33, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    2. Steven Simoens & Mike Villeneuve & Jeremy Hurst, 2005. "Tackling Nurse Shortages in OECD Countries," OECD Health Working Papers 19, OECD Publishing.
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