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Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz - Update 2009: Wirtschaftskrise trifft Tragfähigkeit

  • Moog, Stefan
  • Raffelhüschen, Bernd
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    Als Reaktion auf die globale Wirtschaftskrise hat die Bundesregierung mit einem Gesamtvolumen von über 80 Milliarden Euro das größte Konjunkturprogramm der deutschen Geschichte auf den Weg gebracht. Gleichzeitig hat sie sich damit von dem für 2011 anvisierten Ziel eines ausgeglichenen Haushalts verabschiedet, denn zusammen mit den krisenbedingten Mindereinnahmen und Mehrausgaben beziffert sich das Finanzierungsdefizit in 2009 und 2010 auf über 200 Milliarden Euro. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die Konsequenzen der Wirtschaftskrise und der Konjunkturpakete für die langfristige Finanzentwicklung der öffentlichen Haushalte. Im Jahresvergleich ist festzuhalten, dass sich der in den vergangenen Jahren eingeschlagene Weg hin zu einer nachhaltigen Fiskalpolitik im Jahr 2008 nicht fortgesetzt hat. Diese Trendumkehr ist allerdings nur teilweise auf den krisenbedingten Einbruch der Konjunktur zurückzuführen. Die Ursache ist vielmehr in verschiedenen strukturellen Maßnahmen zu finden, welche die öffentlichen Haushalte nicht nur kurz- und mittelfristig sondern auf Dauer belasten.

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    Paper provided by Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg in its series FZG Discussion Papers with number 38.

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    Date of creation: 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:38
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    1. Alfred Boss & Achim Boss & Thomas Boss, 2008. "Der deutsche Einkommensteuertarif: Wieder eine Wachstumsbremse?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9(1), pages 102-124, 02.
    2. Perotti, Roberto & Kontopoulos, Yianos, 2002. "Fragmented fiscal policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 191-222, November.
    3. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
    4. Ingrid Ott & Susanne Soretz, 2002. "Fiscal Policy in a Stochastic Model of Endogenous Growth with Congestion," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 162, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Schiantarelli, Fabio & Perotti, Roberto & Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 4685103, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational accounting: a new approach for understanding the effects of fiscal policy on saving," Working Paper 9107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    8. Hagist, Christian & Heidler, Matthias & Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Schoder, Jörg, 2007. "Die Generationenbilanz - Brandmelder der Zukunft, Update 2007: Demografie trifft Konjunktur," FZG Discussion Papers 17, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg.
    9. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chetan Ghate & Quan Vu Le & Paul J. Zak, 2002. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in an Economy Facing Socio-Political Instability," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 308, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Muellbauer, John, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving: Comment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 319-22.
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