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Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen: Eine Bestandsaufnahme national und international praktizierter Methoden der langfristigen Budgetanalyse
[Sustainability of Public Finances: A review of internationally applied Methods of long term budgetary analysis with a focus on Germany]

Author

Listed:
  • Gerhards, Eva
  • Goerl, Caroline-Antonia
  • Thöne, Michael

Abstract

Im Kontext einer stark alternden Gesellschaft sowie hoher akkumulierter staatlicher Schuldenstände ist die Sorge um die Nachhaltigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen nicht mehr aus der politischen und wissenschaftlichen Diskussion in den entwickelten Volkswirtschaften wegzudenken. Politische Entscheidungsträger haben ein grundlegendes Interesse daran, künftige finanzpolitische Spielräume durch aussagekräftige und verlässliche Analysen der langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen so gut wie möglich abschätzen zu können. Vor diesem Hintergrund haben viele Staaten insbesondere innerhalb des letzten Jahrzehnts begonnen, regelmäßig Tragfähigkeitsberichte sowie vereinzelt Generationenbilanzen vorzulegen. Ergänzt werden derartige Bemühungen durch zahlreiche akademische Arbeiten. Die dabei zu beobachtenden Divergenzen in Bezug auf die angewandte Terminologie und Methodik schränken die Vergleichbarkeit der Ergebnisse erheblich ein und stiften zuweilen Verwirrung. Bei aller Vielfalt lässt sich jedoch auch feststellen, dass die Grenzen der oft zitierten Dichotomie von Generationenbilanzierung einerseits und "OECD"-Ansatz andererseits dank methodischer Annäherungen sowie ihres gemeinsamen theoretischen Kerns immer mehr verwischen. Ziel ist es daher, die Methoden national und international durchgeführter Tragfähigkeitsanalysen anhand einiger zentraler Beispiele transparent zu machen. Dabei sollen Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede der verschiedenen Ansätze zur Berechnung fiskalischer Nachhaltigkeit sowie ihre jeweiligen Vor- und Nachteile herausgestellt werden. Auf dieser Basis sollen Empfehlungen für die Auswahl viel versprechender methodischer Elemente formuliert werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhards, Eva & Goerl, Caroline-Antonia & Thöne, Michael, 2012. "Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen: Eine Bestandsaufnahme national und international praktizierter Methoden der langfristigen Budgetanalyse [Sustainability of Public Finances: A review of inte," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 14, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fifore:14
    Note: Forschungsauftrag 03/10 des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tragfähigkeit; Nachhaltigkeit; Budgetanalyse; Budgetprojektionen; öffentliche Finanzen; Staatsverschuldung; Sustainability; Public Finances; Public Debt; Budget Forecasts; Fiscal Projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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