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A Hawkes model of the transmission of European sovereign default risk

Listed author(s):
  • Dumitru, Ana-Maria
  • Holden, Tom

The run-up to the Greek default featured marked increases in the cost of insuring sovereign debt from almost all European countries. One explanation is that market participants believed a default in one country might increase the risk of a future default in another, and so news about one country could impact all others. To test for such dynamic contagion between credit related events in different countries, we develop a procedure for tractably estimating high-dimensional Hawkes models using credit default swap prices. Unlike the prior literature, we are able to perform this estimation via maximum likelihood, even without observing events. We escape the curse of dimensionality by modelling a market portfolio of risk across countries. We find significant spillovers in credit risk between countries, with Spain, Portugal and Greece driving events in the other countries considered.

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File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/168431/1/CDSEurozonePaper.pdf
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Paper provided by ZBW - German National Library of Economics in its series EconStor Conference Papers with number 168431.

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Date of creation: 2017
Handle: RePEc:zbw:esconf:168431
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  1. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
  2. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
  3. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
  4. Pastorello, Sergio & Patilea, Valentin & Renault, Eric, 2003. "Iterative and Recursive Estimation in Structural Nonadaptive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 449-482, October.
  5. Steven B. Kamin & Karsten von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 653, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Pastorello, Sergio & Patilea, Valentin & Renault, Eric, 2003. "Iterative and Recursive Estimation in Structural Nonadaptive Models: Rejoinder," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 503-509, October.
  7. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, 02.
  8. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation, 1976-80," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 726-734, September.
  9. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
  11. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
  12. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign "CDS" Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
  13. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2014. "Mutual excitation in Eurozone sovereign CDS," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 151-167.
  14. Steven B. Kamin & K von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging markets credit spreads in the 1990s," BIS Working Papers 68, Bank for International Settlements.
  15. José Da Fonseca & Riadh Zaatour, 2015. "Clustering and Mean Reversion in a Hawkes Microstructure Model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(9), pages 813-838, 09.
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