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A Hawkes model of the transmission of European sovereign default risk

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  • Dumitru, Ana-Maria
  • Holden, Tom

Abstract

The run-up to the Greek default featured marked increases in the cost of insuring sovereign debt from almost all European countries. One explanation is that market participants believed a default in one country might increase the risk of a future default in another, and so news about one country could impact all others. To test for such dynamic contagion between credit related events in different countries, we develop a procedure for tractably estimating high-dimensional Hawkes models using credit default swap prices. Unlike the prior literature, we are able to perform this estimation via maximum likelihood, even without observing events. We escape the curse of dimensionality by modelling a market portfolio of risk across countries. We find significant spillovers in credit risk between countries, with Spain, Portugal and Greece driving events in the other countries considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Dumitru, Ana-Maria & Holden, Tom, 2017. "A Hawkes model of the transmission of European sovereign default risk," EconStor Conference Papers 168431, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esconf:168431
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign CDS spreads; credit risk; multivariate self-exciting point process; systemic risk;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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