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Young firms under pressure: Heterogeneous investment responses to a trade shock

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  • Dibiasi, Andreas
  • Erhardt, Katharina

Abstract

This paper studies heterogeneous firm responses to a sudden trade-induced profitability shock - the 2015 Swiss franc appreciation. Using firm-level investment data and a novel measure of exposure, we document that this trade shock causes large and persistent investment declines among affected firms. Examining heterogeneous responses among firms with similar exposure, we find that differences in responsiveness are not explained by economic fundamentals but are strongly linked to firm age and managerial experience. Younger firms and those led by less experienced managers react substantially more strongly. We argue that these empirical patterns are consistent with a model of Bayesian learning, in which firms update their beliefs about profitability over time. The results provide important insights into the long-lasting effects of trade shocks on business dynamism, capital investment, and local employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Dibiasi, Andreas & Erhardt, Katharina, 2025. "Young firms under pressure: Heterogeneous investment responses to a trade shock," DICE Discussion Papers 426, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dicedp:324872
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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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