IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdp1/2297.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measurement errors in GDP and forward-looking monetary policy: The Swiss case

Author

Listed:
  • Kugler, Peter
  • Jordan, Thomas J.
  • Lenz, Carlos
  • Savioz, Marcel R.

Abstract

This paper analyzes forward-looking rules for Swiss monetary policy in a small structural VAR consisting of four variables. First, the paper looks at the ex ante inflation-output-growth volatility trade-off for a forward-looking policy aiming at a convex combination of a strict inflation and output growth targeting rule implied by this SVAR model. Thereby the paper introduces a new analytical method. Second, the paper considers the effect of measurement errors in GDP on this inflation-output-growth volatility trade-off. Third, the paper works at the impact of changing beliefs about the potential growth rate on the variability of output growth and inflation. Finally the effects of different targets in a forward-looking monetary policy on ex post or unconditional volatility of inflation and output growth is explored by a simulation exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Kugler, Peter & Jordan, Thomas J. & Lenz, Carlos & Savioz, Marcel R., 2004. "Measurement errors in GDP and forward-looking monetary policy: The Swiss case," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19498/1/200431dkp.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Severin Bernhard, 2016. "A real-time GDP data set for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2016-09, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Gunji, Hiroshi & Miura, Kazuki & Yuan, Yuan, 2009. "Bank competition and monetary policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 105-115, January.
    3. Amstad, Marlene & Berentsen, Aleksander, 2002. "Search theory and applied economic research," MPRA Paper 14877, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    3. Daniel Porath, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of default for German savings banks and credit cooperatives," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 58(3), pages 214-233, July.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2007. "Recursive robust estimation and control without commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-27, September.
    6. Fecht, Falko & Grüner, Hans Peter, 2005. "Financial integration and systemic risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Hamerle, Alfred & Knapp, Michael & Wildenauer, Nicole, 2005. "Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher Assetkorrelationen in Mehr-Sektoren-Kreditportfoliomodellen," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 409, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Falko Fecht & Antoine Martin, 2009. "Banks, markets, and efficiency," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 131-160, March.
    9. Zuzana Fungacova & Petr Jakubik, 2013. "Bank Stress Tests as an Information Device for Emerging Markets: The Case of Russia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 87-105, March.
    10. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
    11. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2006/149, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Paustian, Matthias, 2005. "The role of contracting schemes for the welfare costs of nominal rigidities over the business cycle," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,22, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Bruneau, C. & de Bandt, O. & El Amri, W., 2012. "Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate financial fragility," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 219-235.
    15. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Testing Banking Sector Resilience Used by the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2012/11, Czech National Bank.
    16. Stamfort, Stefan, 2005. "Berechnung trendbereinigter Indikatoren für Deutschland mit Hilfe von Filterverfahren," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,19, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Beck, Roland & Jakubik, Petr & Piloiu, Anamaria, 2013. "Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?," Working Paper Series 1515, European Central Bank.
    18. Petr Jakubík, 2007. "Credit Risk and the Finnish Economy," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 254-285, November.
    19. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2006. "Firm-Level Evidence on International Stock Market Comovement," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-98.
    20. Craig, Ben & Fecht, Falko, 2007. "The eurosystem money market auctions: A banking perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2925-2944, September.
    21. Sims, Christopher A., 2005. "Rational inattention: a research agenda," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,34, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2006. "Short-Run and Long-Run Comovement of GDP and Some Expenditure Aggregates in Germany, France and Italy," Springer Books, in: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?, pages 209-249, Springer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural VAR; forward-looking monetary policy; efficiency frontier; GDP measurement errors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.