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Russia's growth potential post-COVID-19

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  • Korhonen, Iikka

Abstract

This paper updates my earlier calculations on Russia's long-run growth potential using a standard growth accounting framework in which GDP growth depends on available labor, capital and efficiency in combining them, i.e. total factor productivity. Russia's economy has grown relatively slowly during the past decade, partly because of declining labor force. In my revised framework, growth recovers after the negative COVID-19 shock, but remains subdued as the working-age population continues to dwindle. Productivity growth remains lower than in the early 2000s, while average GDP growth settles at approximately 1.5% p.a.

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  • Korhonen, Iikka, 2021. "Russia's growth potential post-COVID-19," BOFIT Policy Briefs 9/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitb:92021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Berlemann Michael & Wesselhöft Jan-Erik, 2017. "Aggregate Capital Stock Estimations for 122 Countries: An Update," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(2), pages 75-92, August.
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    3. Kuboniwa, Masaaki & 久保庭, 眞彰 & クボニワ, マサアキ, 2011. "Russian Growth Path and TFP Changes in Light of the Estimation of Production Function using Quarterly Data," RRC Working Paper Series 30, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Jouko Rautava, 2013. "Oil Prices, Excess Uncertainty and Trend Growth," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 77-87.
    5. Marek Dabrowski, 2019. "Factors determining Russia's long-term growth rate," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(4), pages 328-353, December.
    6. Korhonen, I., 2019. "Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions - What Are their Economic Effects in Russia and Elsewhere?," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 184-190.
    7. Berlemann Michael & Wesselhöft Jan-Erik, 2014. "Estimating Aggregate Capital Stocks Using the Perpetual Inventory Method: A Survey of Previous Implementations and New Empirical Evidence for 103 Countries," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(1), pages 1-34, April.
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