A Further Investigation of Selten's Measure of Predictive Success
There are two basic ways of assessing the goodness of fit of theories to data - one based on stochastic theory (for example, the maximised likelihood in some form) and one based on deterministic theory, for example, Selten's Measure of Predictive Success. This paper explores the second of these and presents an application of Selten's Measure to the problem of comparing and ranking various theories of decision making under risk. The paper uses an experiment which was specifically designed to provide insight into the usefulness of this measure. Specifically the questions in the experiment were chosen to give a high degree of discrimination between the various theories being ranked by Selten's measure. However, in common with a previous application, it is found that the measure appears to fail because it has no mechanism for differentiating between observations inconsistent with the theories. This seems to be an inherent failing of a measure based on deterministic theory.
|Date of creation:|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (0)1904 323776
Fax: (0)1904 323759
Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hey, John D., 1998. "An application of Selten's measure of predictive success," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-15, January.
- Mark J Machina, 1982.
""Expected Utility" Analysis without the Independence Axiom,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7650, David K. Levine.
- Machina, Mark J, 1982. ""Expected Utility" Analysis without the Independence Axiom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 277-323, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:99/30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paul Hodgson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.